Okay, after a month off, it’s time to play some catch up. Below is a look at the last two weeks of wagers for the series, weeks 22 and 23 of league play.

WEEK 22 REVIEW
LOSS $100 on NYC = ($100)
LOSS $50 on COLvLA draw = ($50)
LOSS $50 on COL to win = ($50)
LOSS $200 on SKC to win = ($200)
Weekly Total = ($400)

WEEK 23 REVIEW
LOSS $200 on ORL to win = ($200)
HIT! $300 on POR to win at -$150 = $200
Weekly Total = $0

NEW 2015 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 21/43
Picking Draws: 2/8
Total Earnings: ($659)

Now a different kind of catch up is in order. After getting the season deficit under $300 in early August, some irresponsible picking has me back at -$659 on the year. Have a look at some of the most intriguing lines here in week 28, there may be some value to be had.

NYRB v. Chicago – September 11th, 7:00 ET

Not sure how many members of the Red Bull roster are New York natives, or even American to begin with. But any time a New York sports club has a home contest on a day like 9/11, you have to think they’ll play inspired ball and have an amazing crowd behind them.

New York are also a superior club, with a far stronger central midfield and more options in front of goal. Even though Chicago took down NYRB by a score of 3-2 at Toyota Park last month, I still think NYRB crushes tonight, even if only to the tune of 2-0 or 3-1. They aren’t great value at -$200 to win, but nothing gets me randy like a Friday night wager!

Dallas v. NYCFC – September 12th, 8:30 ET

Dallas are playing well and on a two match winning streak. The club should also be boosted by the return of three of their top scorers (Perez, Castillo and Akindele). The Hoops are pretty devastating at home, so I like Dallas at -$145 to win quite a bit this weekend.

LA v. Montreal – September 12th, 10:30 ET

You’ll have to wager a pretty penny to make anything off LA at home this weekend. At -$240 to win, the Galaxy are massive favorites on Saturday night. But I’m a but surprised the bookies aren’t making the odds even steeper by putting LA in the -$300 to -$350 range. Montreal could score two or three goals in this one, but I’d be fairly shocked if they scored four or more, and I’m definitely willing to bet that LA can bag four against the Impact at the StubHub center.

Orlando v. SKC – September 13th, 7:00 ET

Both of these teams are in an awful run of form of late, but I think that has turned SKC into a solid value here. Vermes’ boys are at +$160 to win the match thanks to their four match winless streak, but I think they’re at least a notch or two above the expansion Lions. Orlando can play well at home, but their expansion roster has been devastated by injuries throughout the year and stalwart Kaka could even miss the match as he is currently listed day to day.

***Official Week 28 Picks***

• $300 on NYRB to win at -200
• $150 on DAL to win at -145
• $450 on LA to win at -240
• $100 on SKC to win at +160

For the first time this season I am building some momentum and making real progress. Below this post, you’ll find my week 21 review and all the statistics on the season in the MLS in Vegas Housekeeping post. I’ve gone 2-0 in each of the last two weeks and seen positive earnings in four of the last five weeks of action. The dark days of the $1,100 deficit are behind us for now, and if I hadn’t been slaughtered so badly in weeks 11 and 12 (minus $740 on seven picks during the stretch) this series could very well be in the green. As far as week 22 goes, I don’t see much value at all. I’ve written about some intriguing match ups below, but like most weeks in Major League Soccer, there are no “sure bets” in this round, and no outcome should come as a surprise to the well-informed fan.

NYCFC v. Montreal – August 1st, 2:00 ET

This match began prior to this post making it up on the site, so I tweeted this out 45 minutes prior to first kick for good measure:

There you have it. I swear NYCFC were closer to even odds earlier in the week, something like -$103 or -$104 for the win, but I didn’t make the call until 45 minutes prior to First Kick, and apparently, that’s the price I pay. In terms of analysis and gambling justification, I don’t have much and am willing admit this is a shaky bet. But every analyst on MLS’ site picked NYC, who are a good side at home and facing a Montreal team that is awful on the road. Pirlo is in the lineup and he seemed to spark the club on his debut. Like many bad bets I make, I couldn’t resist on this one, but I didn’t want to pass on NYCFC at home after they busted out for five goals a week ago.

SKC v. Houston – August 1st, 8:30 ET

SKC are the only heavy money line favorites in week 22 at -$139 to beat the Dynamo at Sporting Park. Sporting are a dangerous and well coached side and are one of the most consistent teams in MLS despite last week’s loss in Utah. Despite Houston’s positive 3-0 win at home over the Galaxy last week, I think there is a massive gap in class between these two teams. Add in the massive home field advantage at Sporting Park and SKC at -$139 to win look like the surest bet of the weekend.

However, it is important to remember that these clubs have played each other quite a bit over the last few years. Dating back to the 2011 season, they’ve met 11 times in regular season play, 5 times in postseason play, and twice in USOC play (during 2011 qualification play and two weeks ago in the 2015 quarters). That is a lot of history between these two clubs, making the outcome of this one a bit tougher to pick.

Colorado v. LA Galaxy – August 1st, 9:00 ET

This game is complicated. I need to list off a handful of thoughts before I can begin predicting an outcome. I am also considering taking a unique but risky approach with how I wager on this one, more on that later though. For now, a list of thoughts:

PERSONNEL NOTES:
-Drew Moor (Defender, COL), Omar Gonzalez (Defender, LAG), and Juninho (Midfielder, LAG) played 45 minutes in Wednesday’s All Star Game against Spurs. Colorado’s Sam Cronin (Midfielder) put in a 32 minute shift.

-LA are dealing with a host of injury concerns to some key players:

-LA will also be without the services of goalkeeper Jaime Penedo (no longer with the team), the Panamanian International who helped the club win MLS Cup a year ago.

-The Galaxy do receive a boost as Omar Gonzalez, Gyasi Zardes, and Alan Gordon, having returned from national team duty where they helped the US to a 4th place finish in the Gold Cup, are available for selection.

-It’s also possible that LA’s newest high profile acquisition, Mexican International Giovanni Dos Santos, could be available for selection.

CLUB NOTES:
-The Rapids, in terms of PPG, were easily the worst team in MLS prior to taking the last nine points on offer with a three match win streak. The streak hasn’t been terribly convincing: they did take down VAN 2-1 in Colorado, but their wins against RSL and Seattle were suspect, or certainly not convincing.

-LA have yet to win a match on the road this season in MLS. In eleven matches away from the StubHub Center they’ve lost six and drawn five.

 -The two trends listed above suggest Colorado might be good value at +$148 for the win, but Bruce Arena has a way of elevating his side’s play once the stretch run hits. Expect more consistency and quality from the Galaxy over the final three months of the season.

To me, this game boils down to the health and availability of Robbie Keane. If the talisman is healthy and in the XI then LA could be poised to pick up their first road win of the season. As I said above, I am considering taking a unique but potentially costly approach in terms of betting on this match. Colorado are +$148, LA are +$172, and draws always pay better than 2-1. This means if you can narrow the outcome down to two of three possible results, you will be making money. I am very tempted to wager on the draw and a Rapids victory. If I were to to wager $100 on each of those outcomes, I net $48 in the event of a Rapids win and $123 in the event of a draw. As tempting as it is, raising the stakes in a bet against the Galaxy is probably a bad idea.

Chicago v. Dallas – August 2nd, 7:00 ET

Dallas are on a five match win streak and Chicago are one of the worst clubs in MLS. But FC Dallas have been shaky on their travels and poor in this matchup for the last three years. The money lines reflect the fact that Dallas(+$166), while a far better MLS side than Chicago(+$150), are not even close to favorites in this one. A draw may be worth a look here, but I would say take the favorable odds and bet on Big D or leave this one alone. Dallas is in top form right now and will be aided by the return of JeVaugn Watson, Blas Perez and Moises Hernandez from Gold Cup Duty. But unlike other hot streaks FC Dallas have found themselves on over the last three seasons, this one has a much more sustainable feel to it. Dallas’ recent run of results can be attributed to good health, no suspensions and opportunistic soccer. However, the club is playing better thanks to the emergence of the midfield duo Victor Ulloa and Kellyn Acosta – these two players are helping the D, helping the offense, and have provided FCD with the type of midfield that could really chase some silverware in 2015. So if you don’t want to bet on Dallas, that makes plenty of sense, but I don’t think this is the same Hoops team we saw from 2011 – 2014, so I wouldn’t bet against them.

***Official Week 22 Picks***

• $100 on NYCFC to win at -120
• $50 on COLvLA to draw at +223
• $50 on COL to win at +148
• $200 on SKC to win at -139

We are 21 weeks into the 2015 MLS season and I’ve participated n 13 weeks of action in my MLSinVegas series. Below are the fully updated numbers along with some other statistics.

WEEK 21 REVIEW
HIT! $100 on DCU at +$109 = $109
HIT! $100 on VAN at -$149 = $67
Weekly Total = 109 + 67 = $176

NEW 2015 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 20/39
Picking Draws: 2/7
   Overall: 48%   
Total Earnings: ($259)

Here is a week by week breakdown of my season so far. It was a rough and rock start, but things are starting to smooth out – let’s just hope I can keep my head out of my ass for the next 13 weeks like I have for these last seven!

Below is a breakdown of how I’ve picked each club so far this season. Whether I picked a team to win, lose, or draw, if I was right, I’ve marked it as a Hit on this chart, and if I was wrong when picking a certain club, I’ve marked it as a Miss. Through 13 weeks of the series, I’ve wagered on 46 matches, making for a total of 92 hits and misses so far. Notice that, in the parity ridden Eastern Conference, I am really struggling to accurately pick outcomes with so much inconsistent play. As the first chart shows, I’ve made money in five of the last six weeks I played, so hopefully we can keep the momentum going forward! Look for the MLS in Vegas: Week 22 post on Friday afternoon, I don’t see too many values out there, but SKC at home versus the Houston Dynamo has me feeling opportunistic.

Yee to the HAW! That’s a lot of green and very little red there in the week 20 review. My batting average is back into the .500 range and that season deficit is as low it’s been in months!

WEEK 20 REVIEW
HIT! $300 on LAG at -$200 = $150
HIT! $300 on SKC at -$190 = $158
Weekly Total = 150 + 158 = $308

Generally, MLS in Vegas posts that begin with good news tend to end with bad picks, putting me back in the same hole I just crawled out of. Even the smallest streaks of success make me irrationally confident and delusional, leading to sloppy and irresponsible picking. Currently, I am on one of my better 3-4 week runs of the season. In gambling, winning makes you stupid and losing makes you smart, so I’m going to do my damnedest to pretend I’ve been losing as I go forward with the MLS in Vegas series.

NEW 2015 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 18/37
Picking Draws: 2/7
Total Earnings: ($435)

There are no “massive” favorites around the league in terms of the money lines this week. Vancouver Whitecaps are considered the heaviest week 21 favorite at -$149 to beat the Quakes in BC Place. Columbus Crew are the second heaviest favorite at -$128 to beat Toronto FC in Ohio and the Impact are third at -$122 to beat the reeling Sounders in Montreal. Other than that, bettors are getting above even odds on every MLS full game money line here in week 21. These great odds bring great uncertainty, so a responsible and conservative approach is recommended in this round.

Houston v. LA Galaxy – July 25th, 9:00 ET

The Dynamo have been average at best in 2015 and the Galaxy appear set to take over the world – easy decision in this match, right? You’ll get good value with LA at +$122 to win in Houston but…

These two teams have met twice this season, both times in LA, and both matches were very even. Houston played LA to a 1-1 draw in March and then lost 1-0 at the death in May (courtesy of Alan Gordon, of course). On top of that, LA have been competing in the ICC with matches against Club America and Barcelona over the last two weeks. Furthermore, while the Galaxy have been red hot at home, they’ve not been the same side on the road. Dating back to June 13th, LA have played 4 home matches and 2 road matches in MLS play. In the four home matches, the Galaxy have taken the full 12 points, outscoring opposition 19-3 (seriously, LA have scored 19 goals in their last 4 MLS home matches). However, the two road matches during that stretch were a 1-1 draw at Columbus and a 3-1 defeat in NorCal to the SanJose Quakes.

Sure, LA are a different club now with a fully healthy Robbie Keane and Stevie G in the fold, but I think I’ll take a week off from betting on the Galaxy because this match does not sit well with me.

Dallas v. Portland – July 25th, 9:00 ET

Dallas have won four in a row and are playing some of their best soccer of the season. Mauro Diaz is fully fit and in good spirits after getting a new contract, and the D-mid duo of Kellyn Acosta and Victor Ulloa has freed Mauro up to spearhead the FCD attack and create nightmares for every defense he faces. Fabian Castillo is Fabian Castillo and FC Dallas just play so damn well at home (7-1-2 now on the season). Portland’s Will Johnson is on a red card meaning FC Dallas will catch a personnel break for the third straight match (Kaka was suspended when FCD traveled to Orlando two weeks ago and DC’s new trade acquisition, Alvaro Saborio, was not yet available for last Saturday’s match). Dallas are +$101 (basically EVEN) to win this one at home. Will they make it five in a row? They could, but I am not convinced the Hoops are a good value here.

DC United v. Philadelphia – July 26th, 5:00 ET

DC are +$109 in this one and while they’ve been on a scoring and points drought, I kind of like them here. DC are back at home, they are a quality side, and they’re in need of a win versus a beatable team. I am willing to wager that they put it all on the line this week, will the ball into the back of the net, and grind out the three points. It’s not much analysis there, I know, but I am willing to wager on them this week, and if they fail me, I’ll be much more calculated with the Eastern Conference leaders going forward.

Vancouver v. San Jose – July 26th, 7:00 ET

Both of these clubs have been on a bad run of form – both clubs have also dealt with significant absences during the Gold Cup. San Jose are mostly unpredictable while Vancouver remain a mystery in that they can’t seem to win at home but they are picking up some serious points on the road in 2015. This one has a bit of a dangerous feel to it with Vancouver at -$149 for the win, but I think the ‘Caps are a class above the Quakes and are solid value at home in this one.

***Official Week 21 Picks***

• $100 on DC at +109
• $100 on VAN at -149

I’m very disappointed in myself after week 19. I made three bets: one good bet that hit and two bad bets that did not. While that may sound like an obvious and therefore pointless thing to say, it is not. Sometimes good bets don’t hit (see ORLvNE in week 10) and other times (rarely though) questionable bets do hit. My breakdown of the lines from last week is proof that I knew FCD was the only good value in round 19, but I got cocky. And I love betting on nationally televised games, so I’m often a sucker for #ViernesDeFutbol (SJvHOU fail last week) and #SoccerSunday (NYCvTOR fail last week). I also think a recent run of success had me deviating from my new plan of minimizing wagers per week and emphasizing quality value over quantity.

WEEK 19 REVIEW
LOSS $100 on SJ = ($100)
HIT! $100 on DAL at +$185 = $185
LOSS $200 on NYC = ($200)
Weekly Total = 185 -100 – 200 =  ($115)

NEW 2015 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 16/35
Picking Draws: 2/7
Total Earnings: ($743)

LA Galaxy v. San Jose – July 17th, 11:00 ET

LA are -$200 and San Jose are a whopping +$500. Even though LA lost in an Open Cup match on Tuesday to RSL in which many key contributors went the full 90, the Galaxy still seem like a good bet – brilliant analysis there, I know. MLSsoccer.com’s weekly Pick’em series features six writers/contributors and all six picked LA to win this match. I also see that huge disparity in the two money lines and begin to think that a lot of folks who are more informed than myself (soccer writers, former players, and bookmakers) view LA as a massive favorite tonight – that’s good enough for me!

SKC v. Montreal – July 18th, 8:30 ET

I’m starting to think SKC are a legitimate contender to win MLS Cup. They play physical but attractive soccer and routinely display great team chemistry. Montreal are still a shoddy side on the road and, in my view, a notch below SKC in terms of quality and coaching. It’s no wonder then that SKC are at -$190 for the win. It’s not a full proof bet because sometimes SKC’s defense has horrific lapses (both at home and on the road), which could cost them dearly against a lethal counter attacking Impact team.

FC Dallas v. DC United – July 18th, 9:00 ET

I am not sure why FCD are at -$140 to win in this one. DC United have been tough on the road all year and Dallas has been poor in this matchup over the last few seasons. Dallas is hot, thriving off of a new midfield duo in Victor Ulloa and Kellyn Acosta as well as the pure class of Fabian Castillo and Mauro Diaz, and will be back at home where they play so well (6-1-2 in Frisco this season). This explains the Hoops’ status as favorites, but the matchup makes me uncomfortable as a fan, so as a responsible gambler, I’ll be staying away.

***Official Week 20 Picks***

• $300 on LA at -200
• $300 on SKC at -190