MLS in Vegas: Week 1

Posted on March 6, 2016 by CT

After a brutal 2015, Soccer Therapy is back for more in 2016. If you don’t know the rules, here is a quick refresher: I bet on the weekly money-lines. I can bet on wins and draws, as many or as few as I want in a given week of MLS action, with the only limitation being my $1,000 weekly budget. I get the lines from the Bovada Online Sportsbook each week. Even if I build up some winnings, I cannot bet more than $1,000 in a given week. Note that this is just a game: I like to make these playful wagers and I enjoy keeping track of the numbers, but I am not placing actual bets.

Last year I found myself placing $300 and $400 bets after a winning stretch, only to lose those bets and dig my hole bigger than it ever was in the first place. In 2016, I’ll try to learn from those mistakes and use caution when I find myself wanting to wager $300+. In case you didn’t see last season’s totals in the UGLY section of my The Good, Bad & Ugly from MLS in 2015 post, I’ve got them right here for you:

2015 SEASON
Picking Winners: 22/47 (47%)
Picking Draws: 2/8
Total Earnings: -$1,406 (24/55)

What can I say? It was a trying year, and that is precisely why I do the MLS in Vegas series for fun rather than for money. Anyway, onward we go, through the bloodshed and into 2016. This series is all about weekly wagers, but before I get into the week 1 post, have a look at the MLS Cup odds going into the season:I’ve seen FC Dallas at 10/1 in addition to the 12/1 you see in this graphic (from VegasInsider.com). Either of those is good value as the Hoops appear to be the consensus favorites in the west. NYRB, Columbus and Toronto are getting some love in the east, but you won’t get great odds with NYRB or Columbus and, just being honest, TFC aren’t winning MLS Cup. New England and Orlando might be worth putting a $20 bill on. It’s always fun to look at these numbers but they rarely mean much in the end. And now, it’s onto my week 1 predictions and wagers.

The first week of action should be approached with great caution. Sure, there may be a few good values out there, but this is a marathon, not a sprint, and there’s nothing wrong with staying on the sidelines in week 1. After all, every offseason is filled with player movement and even the most stable clubs deal with significant turnover on an annual basis.

NYRB v. Toronto – March 6th, 1:30 ET

New York are one of the bigger week 1 favorites at -$140 to win at home. Toronto may be decent value at +$335 to win, but this one looks like a stay away to me.

SJ v. Colorado – March 6th, 3:00 ET

I think there is a pretty good chance this one finishes 1-1 or, even more likely, 0-0. At +$230 for the draw, it’s worth considering a small wager.

FC Dallas v. Philadelphia – March 6th, 3:00 ET

You won’t find a bigger favorite in week 1 than FC Dallas. The Hoops are among the 2016 favorites to win the Shield, USOC and MLS Cup while The Union are coming off an ugly 2015 that has them introducing quite a few new parts to start 2016. At -$170 to win, FC Dallas are solid value in week 1 as this line could have been over $200 if the clubs were meeting any later in the season.

Seattle v. SKC – March 6th, 7:00 ET

Seattle are intriguing at -$110 to beat SKC at CenturyLink tonight. They’ve had a couple of competitive matches against Club America in CCL action over the last week and that could amount to a significant advantage in week 1. SKC can be dangerous, though, and over the years they’ve shown they can win in the Pacific Northwest. Approach with caution.

LA Galaxy v. DC United – March 6th, 10:00 ET

LA are actually the biggest money-line favorites in week 1 at -$210 to beat DC United at the StubHub Center. This is a mystery to me and I actually see more value in DCU at +$500 to win. I’d recommend staying away or maybe a small wager on DC to pull the upset.

***Official Week 1 Picks***

$50 SJvCOL to draw at +230
$250 on FCD to win at -170
$110 on SEA to win at -110

2001

Posted on February 22, 2016 by CT

The MLS Timeline Series (and SoccerTherapy.net for that matter) is back! Take a look at the 2001 tile and write up. 2002 is in the works and it’s going to be crazy. Keep an eye out for a belated-to-the-point-of-being-worthless post, MLS: Good, Bad & the Ugly from 2015

Regular Season

This season is likely most remembered for the fact that it was shortened due to the events of 9/11. Of the 12 teams, four played 27 matches while the other eight played 26 (teams were scheduled to play 32 matches). As a result, only two teams cracked the 50 point mark – Chicago and Miami finished tied atop the table with 53 points apiece. More about that coming up.

2001 represented the last year that a Florida club competed in MLS play, and both Tampa and Miami went out in historic fashion. Miami finished with 53 points to take the Shield while Tampa struggled to just 14 points in 27 matches. Miami went out on top, but Tampa’s 14 points still holds as the fewest an MLS club has collected in one season.

The Shield Race
Due to the 9/11 tragedy, this race didn’t play out in full, but in the end, they had to give the trophy to someone. Miami played attractive and entertaining soccer en route to collecting 53 points in their Swan Song season (can you say that about clubs or just players?). They took the Shield from Chicago on a tiebreaker; Miami defeated the Fire in two regular season meetings and played 26 games compared with Chicago’s 27, so they were deserving winners of the regular season hardware. But for Chicago to achieve the high point total in MLS for the second straight year and miss out on the Shield due to a tiebreaker yet again? That had to be pure devastation for their supporters.

All Star Game

This is the way All-Star games were meant to be played: the best players in the league going head-to-head, showing mutual respect and playing no defense whatsoever. The game took place in San Jose and hometown youngster Landon Donovan put on a show for his supporters, scoring a hat trick in the opening 19 minutes of the match and taking MVP honors.

These are highlights you have to see to believe: the defending is nonexistent, and reminiscent of the high-flying, outrageously entertaining NBA All Star Game that I’ve loved since I was a boy. After falling behind early, the East found their way back into the contest and even took a 6-5 lead on the strength of a brace from USMNT legend Brian McBride. Landon wasn’t done just yet, though, as he put his fourth past the ‘keeper in the 92^nd minute to earn his side the draw, the first in MLS ASG history.

Donovan’s standout performance in this midseason showdown was a sign of things to come, not only for this 2001 season, but over the next decade as he would go on to became the greatest player in league history.

US Open Cup

A handful of established MLS clubs fought for the Cup in 2001, with the Galaxy and up and coming New England Revolution joining previous winners DC United and Chicago Fire in the semifinals. On Oct. 27^th, LA Galaxy defeated New England 2-1 in dramatic fashion to take their first ever US Open Cup title.

It was a pretty legendary run for the SoCal side. In the quarters they took down in-state rival San Jose after an epic 10-9 penalty shootout. In the semis they defeated Chicago 1-0 on a 94^th minute goal from Alexi Lalas. Then in the final it was Danny Califf who scored the winner in the 92^nd minute to break the deadlock.

MLS Cup Playoffs

The first round (quarterfinals) was all chalk other than the 4-seed vs. 5-seed matchup, where San Jose made short work of the fourth seeded Columbus Crew. But the second round (semis) must have been an absolute joy for MLS fans at the time. Regular season juggernaut Chicago played USOC winners LA Galaxy in what looked to be a tight three game series. LA were always in control, though, as they drew Chicago in the first matchup and went on to win the next two. The other semifinal looks pretty epic on the score sheet. I’ll just put it here for you, but, suffice it to say, it went down to the wire:

MLS Cup Final: San Jose 2 – 1 LAG

After losing MLS Cup in 1996 and 1999, the Galaxy were determined to take home the precious hardware for the first time. They showed as much, taking a 1-0 lead in the 21^st minute. But 2001 was the year of Landon Donovan, and the budding star bagged the equalizer just before halftime. The game went into overtime at 1-1, where legend Dwayne De Rosario scored what has to be the greatest cup winner in league history.

With their third loss in the cup final after just six years of league play, LA were quickly becoming the bridesmaids of MLS. But as you will see throughout this series, the Galaxy finally figured out how to win the big one, and proceeded on their way to becoming the Evil Empire of American soccer.

Awards

Most Valuable Player: Alex Pineda Chacón – Miami Fusion
Goalkeeper of the Year: Tim Howard – MetroStars
Defender of the Year: Jeff Agoos – San Jose Earthquakes
Goal of the Year: Clint Mathis – MetroStars vs. Dallas Burn – April 28, 2001 (Watch here)
Coach of the Year: Frank Yallop – San Jose Earthquakes

MLS in Vegas: Week 28

Posted on September 11, 2015 by CT

Okay, after a month off, it’s time to play some catch up. Below is a look at the last two weeks of wagers for the series, weeks 22 and 23 of league play.

WEEK 22 REVIEW
LOSS $100 on NYC = ($100)
LOSS $50 on COLvLA draw = ($50)
LOSS $50 on COL to win = ($50)
LOSS $200 on SKC to win = ($200)
Weekly Total = ($400)

WEEK 23 REVIEW
LOSS $200 on ORL to win = ($200)
HIT! $300 on POR to win at -$150 = $200
Weekly Total = $0

NEW 2015 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 21/43
Picking Draws: 2/8
Total Earnings: ($659)

Now a different kind of catch up is in order. After getting the season deficit under $300 in early August, some irresponsible picking has me back at -$659 on the year. Have a look at some of the most intriguing lines here in week 28, there may be some value to be had.

NYRB v. Chicago – September 11th, 7:00 ET

Not sure how many members of the Red Bull roster are New York natives, or even American to begin with. But any time a New York sports club has a home contest on a day like 9/11, you have to think they’ll play inspired ball and have an amazing crowd behind them.

New York are also a superior club, with a far stronger central midfield and more options in front of goal. Even though Chicago took down NYRB by a score of 3-2 at Toyota Park last month, I still think NYRB crushes tonight, even if only to the tune of 2-0 or 3-1. They aren’t great value at -$200 to win, but nothing gets me randy like a Friday night wager!

Dallas v. NYCFC – September 12th, 8:30 ET

Dallas are playing well and on a two match winning streak. The club should also be boosted by the return of three of their top scorers (Perez, Castillo and Akindele). The Hoops are pretty devastating at home, so I like Dallas at -$145 to win quite a bit this weekend.

LA v. Montreal – September 12th, 10:30 ET

You’ll have to wager a pretty penny to make anything off LA at home this weekend. At -$240 to win, the Galaxy are massive favorites on Saturday night. But I’m a but surprised the bookies aren’t making the odds even steeper by putting LA in the -$300 to -$350 range. Montreal could score two or three goals in this one, but I’d be fairly shocked if they scored four or more, and I’m definitely willing to bet that LA can bag four against the Impact at the StubHub center.

Orlando v. SKC – September 13th, 7:00 ET

Both of these teams are in an awful run of form of late, but I think that has turned SKC into a solid value here. Vermes’ boys are at +$160 to win the match thanks to their four match winless streak, but I think they’re at least a notch or two above the expansion Lions. Orlando can play well at home, but their expansion roster has been devastated by injuries throughout the year and stalwart Kaka could even miss the match as he is currently listed day to day.

***Official Week 28 Picks***

$300 on NYRB to win at -200
$150 on DAL to win at -145
$450 on LA to win at -240
$100 on SKC to win at +160

MLS in Vegas: Week 22

Posted on August 1, 2015 by CT

For the first time this season I am building some momentum and making real progress. Below this post, you’ll find my week 21 review and all the statistics on the season in the MLS in Vegas Housekeeping post. I’ve gone 2-0 in each of the last two weeks and seen positive earnings in four of the last five weeks of action. The dark days of the $1,100 deficit are behind us for now, and if I hadn’t been slaughtered so badly in weeks 11 and 12 (minus $740 on seven picks during the stretch) this series could very well be in the green. As far as week 22 goes, I don’t see much value at all. I’ve written about some intriguing match ups below, but like most weeks in Major League Soccer, there are no “sure bets” in this round, and no outcome should come as a surprise to the well-informed fan.

NYCFC v. Montreal – August 1st, 2:00 ET

This match began prior to this post making it up on the site, so I tweeted this out 45 minutes prior to first kick for good measure:

There you have it. I swear NYCFC were closer to even odds earlier in the week, something like -$103 or -$104 for the win, but I didn’t make the call until 45 minutes prior to First Kick, and apparently, that’s the price I pay. In terms of analysis and gambling justification, I don’t have much and am willing admit this is a shaky bet. But every analyst on MLS’ site picked NYC, who are a good side at home and facing a Montreal team that is awful on the road. Pirlo is in the lineup and he seemed to spark the club on his debut. Like many bad bets I make, I couldn’t resist on this one, but I didn’t want to pass on NYCFC at home after they busted out for five goals a week ago.

SKC v. Houston – August 1st, 8:30 ET

SKC are the only heavy money line favorites in week 22 at -$139 to beat the Dynamo at Sporting Park. Sporting are a dangerous and well coached side and are one of the most consistent teams in MLS despite last week’s loss in Utah. Despite Houston’s positive 3-0 win at home over the Galaxy last week, I think there is a massive gap in class between these two teams. Add in the massive home field advantage at Sporting Park and SKC at -$139 to win look like the surest bet of the weekend.

However, it is important to remember that these clubs have played each other quite a bit over the last few years. Dating back to the 2011 season, they’ve met 11 times in regular season play, 5 times in postseason play, and twice in USOC play (during 2011 qualification play and two weeks ago in the 2015 quarters). That is a lot of history between these two clubs, making the outcome of this one a bit tougher to pick.

Colorado v. LA Galaxy – August 1st, 9:00 ET

This game is complicated. I need to list off a handful of thoughts before I can begin predicting an outcome. I am also considering taking a unique but risky approach with how I wager on this one, more on that later though. For now, a list of thoughts:

PERSONNEL NOTES:
-Drew Moor (Defender, COL), Omar Gonzalez (Defender, LAG), and Juninho (Midfielder, LAG) played 45 minutes in Wednesday’s All Star Game against Spurs. Colorado’s Sam Cronin (Midfielder) put in a 32 minute shift.

-LA are dealing with a host of injury concerns to some key players:

-LA will also be without the services of goalkeeper Jaime Penedo (no longer with the team), the Panamanian International who helped the club win MLS Cup a year ago.

-The Galaxy do receive a boost as Omar Gonzalez, Gyasi Zardes, and Alan Gordon, having returned from national team duty where they helped the US to a 4th place finish in the Gold Cup, are available for selection.

-It’s also possible that LA’s newest high profile acquisition, Mexican International Giovanni Dos Santos, could be available for selection.

CLUB NOTES:
-The Rapids, in terms of PPG, were easily the worst team in MLS prior to taking the last nine points on offer with a three match win streak. The streak hasn’t been terribly convincing: they did take down VAN 2-1 in Colorado, but their wins against RSL and Seattle were suspect, or certainly not convincing.

-LA have yet to win a match on the road this season in MLS. In eleven matches away from the StubHub Center they’ve lost six and drawn five.

-The two trends listed above suggest Colorado might be good value at +$148 for the win, but Bruce Arena has a way of elevating his side’s play once the stretch run hits. Expect more consistency and quality from the Galaxy over the final three months of the season.

To me, this game boils down to the health and availability of Robbie Keane. If the talisman is healthy and in the XI then LA could be poised to pick up their first road win of the season. As I said above, I am considering taking a unique but potentially costly approach in terms of betting on this match. Colorado are +$148, LA are +$172, and draws always pay better than 2-1. This means if you can narrow the outcome down to two of three possible results, you will be making money. I am very tempted to wager on the draw and a Rapids victory. If I were to to wager $100 on each of those outcomes, I net $48 in the event of a Rapids win and $123 in the event of a draw. As tempting as it is, raising the stakes in a bet against the Galaxy is probably a bad idea.

Chicago v. Dallas – August 2nd, 7:00 ET

Dallas are on a five match win streak and Chicago are one of the worst clubs in MLS. But FC Dallas have been shaky on their travels and poor in this matchup for the last three years. The money lines reflect the fact that Dallas(+$166), while a far better MLS side than Chicago(+$150), are not even close to favorites in this one. A draw may be worth a look here, but I would say take the favorable odds and bet on Big D or leave this one alone. Dallas is in top form right now and will be aided by the return of JeVaugn Watson, Blas Perez and Moises Hernandez from Gold Cup Duty. But unlike other hot streaks FC Dallas have found themselves on over the last three seasons, this one has a much more sustainable feel to it. Dallas’ recent run of results can be attributed to good health, no suspensions and opportunistic soccer. However, the club is playing better thanks to the emergence of the midfield duo Victor Ulloa and Kellyn Acosta – these two players are helping the D, helping the offense, and have provided FCD with the type of midfield that could really chase some silverware in 2015. So if you don’t want to bet on Dallas, that makes plenty of sense, but I don’t think this is the same Hoops team we saw from 2011 – 2014, so I wouldn’t bet against them.

***Official Week 22 Picks***

$100 on NYCFC to win at -120
$50 on COLvLA to draw at +223
$50 on COL to win at +148
$200 on SKC to win at -139

MLS in Vegas: Housekeeping

Posted on July 28, 2015 by CT

We are 21 weeks into the 2015 MLS season and I’ve participated n 13 weeks of action in my MLSinVegas series. Below are the fully updated numbers along with some other statistics.

WEEK 21 REVIEW
HIT! $100 on DCU at +$109 = $109
HIT! $100 on VAN at -$149 = $67
Weekly Total = 109 + 67 = $176

NEW 2015 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 20/39
Picking Draws: 2/7
Overall: 48%
Total Earnings: ($259)

Here is a week by week breakdown of my season so far. It was a rough and rock start, but things are starting to smooth out – let’s just hope I can keep my head out of my ass for the next 13 weeks like I have for these last seven!

Below is a breakdown of how I’ve picked each club so far this season. Whether I picked a team to win, lose, or draw, if I was right, I’ve marked it as a Hit on this chart, and if I was wrong when picking a certain club, I’ve marked it as a Miss. Through 13 weeks of the series, I’ve wagered on 46 matches, making for a total of 92 hits and misses so far. Notice that, in the parity ridden Eastern Conference, I am really struggling to accurately pick outcomes with so much inconsistent play. As the first chart shows, I’ve made money in five of the last six weeks I played, so hopefully we can keep the momentum going forward! Look for the MLS in Vegas: Week 22 post on Friday afternoon, I don’t see too many values out there, but SKC at home versus the Houston Dynamo has me feeling opportunistic.

MLS in Vegas: Week 21

Posted on July 24, 2015 by CT

Yee to the HAW! That’s a lot of green and very little red there in the week 20 review. My batting average is back into the .500 range and that season deficit is as low it’s been in months!

WEEK 20 REVIEW
HIT! $300 on LAG at -$200 = $150
HIT! $300 on SKC at -$190 = $158
Weekly Total = 150 + 158 = $308

Generally, MLS in Vegas posts that begin with good news tend to end with bad picks, putting me back in the same hole I just crawled out of. Even the smallest streaks of success make me irrationally confident and delusional, leading to sloppy and irresponsible picking. Currently, I am on one of my better 3-4 week runs of the season. In gambling, winning makes you stupid and losing makes you smart, so I’m going to do my damnedest to pretend I’ve been losing as I go forward with the MLS in Vegas series.

NEW 2015 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 18/37
Picking Draws: 2/7
Total Earnings: ($435)

There are no “massive” favorites around the league in terms of the money lines this week. Vancouver Whitecaps are considered the heaviest week 21 favorite at -$149 to beat the Quakes in BC Place. Columbus Crew are the second heaviest favorite at -$128 to beat Toronto FC in Ohio and the Impact are third at -$122 to beat the reeling Sounders in Montreal. Other than that, bettors are getting above even odds on every MLS full game money line here in week 21. These great odds bring great uncertainty, so a responsible and conservative approach is recommended in this round.

Houston v. LA Galaxy – July 25th, 9:00 ET

The Dynamo have been average at best in 2015 and the Galaxy appear set to take over the world – easy decision in this match, right? You’ll get good value with LA at +$122 to win in Houston but…

These two teams have met twice this season, both times in LA, and both matches were very even. Houston played LA to a 1-1 draw in March and then lost 1-0 at the death in May (courtesy of Alan Gordon, of course). On top of that, LA have been competing in the ICC with matches against Club America and Barcelona over the last two weeks. Furthermore, while the Galaxy have been red hot at home, they’ve not been the same side on the road. Dating back to June 13th, LA have played 4 home matches and 2 road matches in MLS play. In the four home matches, the Galaxy have taken the full 12 points, outscoring opposition 19-3 (seriously, LA have scored 19 goals in their last 4 MLS home matches). However, the two road matches during that stretch were a 1-1 draw at Columbus and a 3-1 defeat in NorCal to the SanJose Quakes.

Sure, LA are a different club now with a fully healthy Robbie Keane and Stevie G in the fold, but I think I’ll take a week off from betting on the Galaxy because this match does not sit well with me.

Dallas v. Portland – July 25th, 9:00 ET

Dallas have won four in a row and are playing some of their best soccer of the season. Mauro Diaz is fully fit and in good spirits after getting a new contract, and the D-mid duo of Kellyn Acosta and Victor Ulloa has freed Mauro up to spearhead the FCD attack and create nightmares for every defense he faces. Fabian Castillo is Fabian Castillo and FC Dallas just play so damn well at home (7-1-2 now on the season). Portland’s Will Johnson is on a red card meaning FC Dallas will catch a personnel break for the third straight match (Kaka was suspended when FCD traveled to Orlando two weeks ago and DC’s new trade acquisition, Alvaro Saborio, was not yet available for last Saturday’s match). Dallas are +$101 (basically EVEN) to win this one at home. Will they make it five in a row? They could, but I am not convinced the Hoops are a good value here.

DC United v. Philadelphia – July 26th, 5:00 ET

DC are +$109 in this one and while they’ve been on a scoring and points drought, I kind of like them here. DC are back at home, they are a quality side, and they’re in need of a win versus a beatable team. I am willing to wager that they put it all on the line this week, will the ball into the back of the net, and grind out the three points. It’s not much analysis there, I know, but I am willing to wager on them this week, and if they fail me, I’ll be much more calculated with the Eastern Conference leaders going forward.

Vancouver v. San Jose – July 26th, 7:00 ET

Both of these clubs have been on a bad run of form – both clubs have also dealt with significant absences during the Gold Cup. San Jose are mostly unpredictable while Vancouver remain a mystery in that they can’t seem to win at home but they are picking up some serious points on the road in 2015. This one has a bit of a dangerous feel to it with Vancouver at -$149 for the win, but I think the ‘Caps are a class above the Quakes and are solid value at home in this one.

***Official Week 21 Picks***

$100 on DC at +109
$100 on VAN at -149

MLS in Vegas: Week 20

Posted on July 17, 2015 by CT

I’m very disappointed in myself after week 19. I made three bets: one good bet that hit and two bad bets that did not. While that may sound like an obvious and therefore pointless thing to say, it is not. Sometimes good bets don’t hit (see ORLvNE in week 10) and other times (rarely though) questionable bets do hit. My breakdown of the lines from last week is proof that I knew FCD was the only good value in round 19, but I got cocky. And I love betting on nationally televised games, so I’m often a sucker for #ViernesDeFutbol (SJvHOU fail last week) and #SoccerSunday (NYCvTOR fail last week). I also think a recent run of success had me deviating from my new plan of minimizing wagers per week and emphasizing quality value over quantity.

WEEK 19 REVIEW
LOSS $100 on SJ = ($100)
HIT! $100 on DAL at +$185 = $185
LOSS $200 on NYC = ($200)
Weekly Total = 185 -100 – 200 = ($115)

NEW 2015 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 16/35
Picking Draws: 2/7
Total Earnings: ($743)

LA Galaxy v. San Jose – July 17th, 11:00 ET

LA are -$200 and San Jose are a whopping +$500. Even though LA lost in an Open Cup match on Tuesday to RSL in which many key contributors went the full 90, the Galaxy still seem like a good bet – brilliant analysis there, I know. MLSsoccer.com’s weekly Pick’em series features six writers/contributors and all six picked LA to win this match. I also see that huge disparity in the two money lines and begin to think that a lot of folks who are more informed than myself (soccer writers, former players, and bookmakers) view LA as a massive favorite tonight – that’s good enough for me!

SKC v. Montreal – July 18th, 8:30 ET

I’m starting to think SKC are a legitimate contender to win MLS Cup. They play physical but attractive soccer and routinely display great team chemistry. Montreal are still a shoddy side on the road and, in my view, a notch below SKC in terms of quality and coaching. It’s no wonder then that SKC are at -$190 for the win. It’s not a full proof bet because sometimes SKC’s defense has horrific lapses (both at home and on the road), which could cost them dearly against a lethal counter attacking Impact team.

FC Dallas v. DC United – July 18th, 9:00 ET

I am not sure why FCD are at -$140 to win in this one. DC United have been tough on the road all year and Dallas has been poor in this matchup over the last few seasons. Dallas is hot, thriving off of a new midfield duo in Victor Ulloa and Kellyn Acosta as well as the pure class of Fabian Castillo and Mauro Diaz, and will be back at home where they play so well (6-1-2 in Frisco this season). This explains the Hoops’ status as favorites, but the matchup makes me uncomfortable as a fan, so as a responsible gambler, I’ll be staying away.

***Official Week 20 Picks***

$300 on LA at -200
$300 on SKC at -190

MLS Radar: Week 12

Posted on May 26, 2015 by CT

FC Dallas dropped all three points to start off a daunting road trip. The MLSinVegas series is in shambles. As a result, I am going to give the Radar Series a bit of a breather to refocus my energy on the MLS Timeline Series. You’ll still find the F-Up, Surprise, Goal and Tweet of the Week sections on this blog every Monday, but unfortunately, excitement and promise are the winds that move my blogging sails, and those winds have been absent lately. So have a look at what the Radar Series has to offer this week while I get to work on finishing off the MLS TL Series 2001 Tile.

Jonathan Osorio – Toronto FC

Toronto won the match so Osorio’s error didn’t cost his club any points, but I simply hate seeing a great buildup and composed effort on goal end like this. The play reminded a lot of this one http://www.mlssoccer.com/video/2013/07/13/shot-fabian-castillo-blocked-teamate-kenny-cooperI am sure there are more deserving individuals for this distinction. DC had a two man advantage in Foxborough but couldn’t take all three points against rivals New England. Columbus had a 2-0 lead at home over Chicago before deciding 60 minutes of soccer was enough for them. The Crew eventually settled for a 2-2 draw after Chicago’s equalizer at the death. The ref awarded a soft PK to Montreal that cost Dallas a point on the road. And I’m sure someone was to blame for Houston and Vancouver as they both lost narrowly on the road, to LA and Colorado respectively.

Surprise of the Week
NYRB 0 – 2 PHI

This one cost the MLSinVegas series a clean three hundo. I did not watch (Happy Memorial Day!), so I have no idea how this could have happened. I saw this match playing out either 2-0 or 3-1 to New York and thought the Red Bulls would make short work of The Union in Red Bull Arena.

It comes down to three standout goals for me in week 12. Each one is listed below:

Sebastian Giovinco (TFC) – 5′ v. Portland
Jack McInerney (MTL) – 50′ v. FC Dallas
Lucas Pittinari (COL) – 51′ v. Vancouver

It’s clear that these three are the best of the bunch from round 12 in MLS. The voting on MLSsoccer.com will likely comes down to the long distance blast from Giovinco and the volley from Pittinari – each strike finished off a nice passing sequence and stood as the game winner. Both were top notch strikes and worthy of the award, but I’ll go with Pittinari for GOTW thanks to Gabi Torres’ brilliant flick, which was no doubt the Assist of the Week.

There won’t be an official winner this week. I’ve got a pair of fascinating photos to share and a couple of decent tweets as well. Nothing great from the TwitterSphere in round 12, but interesting as always.

1) One of the most gorgeous pregame displays I’ve ever seen.

2) A hilarious response to the Revs Twitter post regarding their own Chris Tierney seeing red against DC United. Even though he is a Galaxy supporter, @SeanSteffen is a massive smart ass (I mean that as a compliment) and a great follow.

3) The sky is cryin’, Can’t you see the tears roll down the street… – SRV

4) Anytime I get a retweet or a response out of MLSsoccer.com’s Matthew Doyle, I’m going to pat myself on the back for it and post it on the blog.

The days of the long Radar and MLSinVegas posts may be be coming to an end. The Radar Series, when done well with time and effort, is too much work. MLSinVegas is a blast, but until my picks and earnings start to improve, I’ll be minimizing the length of those posts as well. But I am always fascinated with soccer in North America. So if and when something “crosses my radar” that I simply must share, I’ll still be posting here on SoccerTherapy.net.

MLS Radar: Week 11

Posted on May 20, 2015 by CT

Unfortunately I can’t fully recap a fascinating week of action in MLS. This abbreviated post will include all of the usual content, the GOTW, Surprise of the Week, F-Up of the Week, and the Tweet of the Week, but little more. I’ll dive a bit deeper into the meaning of the results with my Friday morning #MLSinVegas post, but the main take away from week 11 is that Major League Soccer remains wildly unpredictable. Montreal picked up their first win of the season, crushing a solid Real Salt Lake team by four goals to one. Toronto’s draw in New England came unexpected after their dismal home performance against a lesser Dynamo side in week 10. Orlando City picked up their first home win of the season, taking advantage of a badly struggling LA Galaxy side and exploding for four goals in the Citrus Bowl. For some perspective, The Lions had scored just three goals in their first five home games on their way to two draws and three losses – needless to say, four goals and three points seemed unlikely for Orlando prior to the match start on Sunday. And then, as if we hadn’t seen enough craziness, the Sunday night cap saw a dog Philly team take down red hot DC United 1-0 with a stoppage time winner.

Every time we begin to think we have this league figured out, something crazy like week 11 happens to remind us that parity rules the day. On a good day, a bad team can always spoil a Three-Points-Party, and no matter how many patterns emerge between now and the end of the season, that will always be the case in MLS as we know it today.

Everyone!

I thought about giving this award to the Galaxy for their 4-0 loss to an expansion side. I thought about the Chicago Fire for this award after they squandered a two goal and one man advantage in New York (also against an expansion side). I also thought about giving it to RSL for getting thrashed in Montreal. Vancouver came out flat at home against a top of the table competitor and hated rival. I just couldn’t decide, and unless I’ve overlooked something, I couldn’t point to one player costing his team the game in a single boneheaded moment.

Surprise of the Week
MTL 4 – 1 RSL

I’ve covered all of the surprising results already in this post, but Montreal deserves the shout out here. They’ve struggled to find their league form early in 2015 thanks to a miraculous run in the CONCACAF Champions League. Montreal were burdened by more non-MLS action right after that run with a home-and-home Canadian Cup semifinal against rivals Toronto. They advanced from that series in dramatic fashion just three days prior to meeting RSL, so I thought they’d struggle to find the energy and motivation in this one. Obviously that wasn’t the case and The Impact were damn impressive in their 4-1 win (it should have been 5-0: Piatti missed a PK off the post for Montreal and Sandoval’s goal for RSL was about as likely as me winning the lottery). Montreal have some quality, they can counter as well as any team in the league, and now they can really hone in on collecting points in MLS. The top four in the east will be tough to deal with in the table (DC, NYRB, CLB and NE) but perhaps Montreal could make a run at the five or six seed in 2015.

Devon Sandoval’s lovely one touch finish from the corner of the 18 yard box will likely take the honors on MLSsoccer.com’s GOTW voting, but I’m giving him the runner up. For me, this week’s winner is Michael Bradley, what a beast mode run and quality finish. Bradley’s return to MLS has been marked by visible frustration at times. On this goal, I feel like he channeled that frustration positively, using it to make a strong play and earn his club a point on the road.

The TOTW section has been a little light on numbers lately. This week we’ll give credit to the two fellas below for sharing these stats about two of MLS’ best.

Hopefully week 12 will give us just as much to talk about as week 11 has. FC Dallas, who’ve played 7 of 11 matches at home, are about to embark on a five game road trip. It all starts Saturday at 8 ET in Montreal where we’ll see two of the best counter attacking sides in MLS go head to head. A lot could be learned about FC Dallas and the seriousness of their title aspirations from this road trip.

I’ll finish off this post with a quick mention of one of my favorite aspects of American soccer. The Lamar Hunt US Open Cup, the oldest soccer competition in the United States, is in full swing with the second round (featuring lower division and amateur sides) taking place this week. Check out the tournament schedule here. If you’re interested in watching the Austin Aztex throughout the competition (or in any of their matches for that matter), go ahead and bookmark the club’s YouTube page, where all their matches are broadcast live and for free. Cheers, and look out for the MLSinVegas post on Friday morning.

MLS Radar: Week 9

Posted on May 5, 2015 by CT

Week 9 is in the books and the season fully under way as most clubs are starting to reveal their 2015 identities. RSL and San Jose played to a 1-1 draw in Utah, further establishing themselves as mediocre clubs with little hope for playoff success. Portland did the same in their scoreless performance at home against rivals Vancouver. DCU continued their early season run, taking down a good Columbus team 2-0 at RFK. United are now off to their finest start in franchise history, averaging 2.13 points per match through 8 games. That’s remarkable considering how successful the charter club has been over the last two decades. One club we haven’t had the chance to analyze in league play is Montreal, who’ve played just four matches so far this season while MLS accommodated to their unanticipated CONCACAF Champions League run. Speaking of that, it was fun while it lasted for the Impact, but inevitably, Club America finally turned it on with four goals in the second half of the second leg to take the final 4-2 on aggregate. In the midst of America’s goal explosion, Dario Benedetto stole the show with a nifty hat trick in a span of just 31 minutes – this highlight video was the best I could find, but some of those strikes are worth a look.

I frequently reference Matthew Doyle and his Sunday night piece that you can read on MLSsoccer.com. I’ll go ahead and throw in the hyperlink to his week 9 piece because it’s always a good read. Doyle has a way of describing things effectively and concisely. He’s long referred to FCD playmaker Mauro Diaz as a “Magical Little Unicorn” – which is both apt and hilarious. This week he offered another perfect player description – I’ve included the excerpt below:

Chris Rolfe is in one of his “I’m a freaking Wizard” streaks

I love this quote. It perfectly sums up Chris Rolfe because he really does look like a wizard on the pitch at times, whether creating quality chances or finishing off a world class goal himself. But then of course, he does have those stretches where he goes unnoticed and fails to impact matches, making him a streaky player.

UPDATE:

The Aztex are 3-3-1 and currently sit tied for 4th in the USL’s western conference. Not bad at all for the club’s inaugural campaign in the USL, but a closer look at the results reveals a disturbing trend: they are struggling with the better USL clubs and picking up points against the weak ones. Six of the club’s 10 points on the year have come at home against expansion side Colorado Springs (While Austin are new to USL, we are not a new franchise. ATX were founded in 2011 and have three seasons of experience in the USL PDL. Colorado Springs Switchbacks were founded in 2014 and played their first ever competitive match against Austin in the USL season opener, a 2-0 win for the Aztex).

Three more points came from a 2-0 win on the road against Tulsa Roughnecks FC, another expansion club playing in their first ever competitive season. And the tenth point ATX has so far in 2015 came at home against OKC Energy FC – a 2-2 draw in which Austin allowed an 87th minute equalizer (OKC, founded in 2013, are another relatively new club and have just one season of competitive experience). On the other hand, Austin have dropped points against stronger USL opposition: losing at home to Whitecaps II and Arizona United, and on the road against Galaxy II.

The team is young and the current group has had relatively little time to gel. This trend is no cause for panic, but Austin will want to grab a win against a quality opponent soon, before their confidence suffers as a result.

Victor Bernardez (Defender) – SJ

Any time I get the chance to give this award to Victor Bernardez I am going to take full advantage. I hate this guy. Victor was the clear winner in week 9 with this hilarious own goal that cost the Quakes a pair of points on the road. That was the GK’s ball all the way and an easy stop, but no.

Runner-Up

I hate to give commentators a hard time as I appreciate the difficulty of talking for two straight hours without sounding like an idiot at least once (or twice or a dozen+ times). But Paul Caligiuri must be mentioned for his clumsy and hilarious analysis of FC Dallas’ opening goal on UniMas’ #ViernesDeFutbol. Before watching, note that Houston’s ‘keeper is named Tyler Deric. The Dallas ‘keeper is Dan Kennedy.

I love seeing two FC Dallas players nominated for GOTW on MLSsoccer.com, but all four of our goals against Houston were classy finishes. Week 9 offered a nice selection of goals to choose from, but two in particular caught my eye. Some might wonder why I didn’t choose Sebastian Giovinco’s 35-yard free kick goal that decided the 1-0 match in Philly over the weekend. I hate to take anything away because it was an awesome strike, but I believe a better GK would have read it earlier and made the stop. Thus, no GOTW for you, Sebas.

My official week 9 winner is the third and final goal in Seattle’s 3-1 win over NYCFC thanks to the sublime assist by Clint Dempsey. Once Deuce put him through, the control and the finish from Obafemi Martins was pure confidence and quality. Those two have been downright filthy of late and are proving to be in a class of their own every time they take the pitch. No play illustrates that better than the week 9 GOTW.

There’s nothing wrong with silver and I simply loved this goal, so the GOTW runner-up goes to the entire Revs attack for their second of the night in a 2-1 win over rivals NYRB. What amazing team work, kind of like a slow version of Arsenal! The passing was quick, crisp and crafty, and I love seeing the patience and composure from Teal Bunbury to finish off the move.

@HeyHayward, producer of top notch programs Soccer Morning and The Best Soccer Show, had the best of the CCL tweets from Wednesday’s second leg. This is Jurgen Klinsmann in a nutshell, apparently Piatti was running his ass off at that stage in the match.

But the tweet below Hayward’s is the official week 9 TOTW. @BBCSporf deserves credit for spotting it, but the distinction is awarded to the Notts County FC social media team for their perfect response to a fan’s inquiry.

I’ve got little more to add to this week’s post. Week 9 was fun but 10 could be even better with matchups like CHIvRSL, MTLvPOR, CLBvSEA, DALvLA and a game the folks in New York have been waiting to see for nearly two years now: NYRB vs. NYCFC, 5/9, Red Bull Arena, FS1, 7 ET.