MLS in Vegas: Week 6

A Brief Description of MLS in Vegas:

Soccer Therapy is tracking MLS money lines at the Bovada Sportsbook during the 2015 season. Each Thursday, I’ll post a Bettor’s Advice column before the weekend’s action commences. This column will include two regular sections: The Draw Watch and The Hat-trick – click here to learn more about each section. The Bettor’s Advice column shares my opinions but does not reflect my official picks for the week. My official picks, which I’ll use to track my winnings (or losings) in 2015, can be found at the bottom of each post. I’ll revisit my official picks after each week and track those results throughout the season.

Week 5 Results:

Last week I changed the rules. Instead of wagering $100 on each of my official picks, I gave myself a $1,000 weekly budget – again, this is all Monopoly money and I am not placing actual bets. After a tough first week in which I lost my readers $83 I was looking to make up some ground in week 5, and fortunately, I was able to do so. I went 0 for 2 picking draws but 3 for 3 picking winners. See the breakdown of my official week 5 picks and earnings below:

  • HIT! $200 on SKC at -120 = (100/120) * $200 = $167
  • HIT! $300 on SEA at -175 = (100/175) * $300 = $171
  • HIT! $100 on CHI at +140 = 1.4 * $100 = $140
  • LOSS $150 on COLvNE to draw = ($100)
  • LOSS $100 on PORvDAL to draw = ($150)

WEEK 5 TOTALS
Winnings = $478
Losses = $250
  Net = $228

2015 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 4/6
Picking Draws: 1/4
Total Earnings: +$145

stayawyTwo fun weeks into this MLSinVegas series, I’ve decided to do away with the Stay Away Games section, and here is why: What makes betting on soccer so difficult is that matches can end in a draw, forcing one to choose from among three options rather than two when placing a bet. This makes predicting the exact outcome of a soccer match extremely difficult. Because of this, the parity in MLS, and how difficult and generally unwise gambling can be, every game could legitimately be considered a “stay away” game. I now realize that this section is useless, as any intelligent gambler (or non gambler) could argue that every MLS match played in 2015 is a “stay away” game.

draw watchThis week’s Draw Watch is exactly that, a watchful eye on some matches with draw possibilities. But in this week 6, the section offers no real money makers that excite me.

PHI v. NYCFC, PPL Park, 4/11, 3pm CST
PHI             +110
NYC           +230
Draw          +220

Thoughts: I feel like this is finally the week where Philly gets a win, but I’ll believe it when I see it. You can’t count on the Union as they have turned in some hideous performances so far in 2015, but NYC look like a poor side on the road. The problem with this match is that I could easily see it ending in any of the three possible results, a Philly win, a New York win, or a draw. Those are the kinds of matches I prefer to stay away from.

SKC v. RSL, Sporting Park, 4/11, 7:30pm CST
SKC             EVEN
RSL             +250
Draw           +230

Thoughts: Both of these teams have improved through the early weeks of the season. RSL are coming off of a good road win in San Jose and SKC made a terrific stoppage time comeback to defeat Philly in week 5. I find myself struggling to pick a winner in this one, but I can certainly envision a draw playing out at Sporting Park on Saturday night. This is my top draw pick of the week, but a shaky one for sure.

SJ v. VAN, Avaya Stadium, 4/11, 9:30pm CST
SJ                 +140
VAN              +170
Draw            +230

Thoughts: This is a classic stay away game in my book. The circumstances favor the home team, as they will be in front of the home crowd and on a week’s rest. Vancouver are coming off of a Wednesday night clash in which Columbus gave them everything they could handle, managing a 2-2 draw at difficult BC Place. Vancouver may be good value to win at +170 as they are the better side, but playing on Wednesday and then traveling puts the Caps at a significant disadvantage in this one.

Hat trickFCD v. COL, Toyota Stadium, 4/10, 6pm CST, UniMas
FCD              -165
COL              +425
Draw             +260

Thoughts: FC Dallas are unbeaten at home in 2015. Colorado have yet to score a goal in 2015.

NE v. CLB, Gillette Stadium, 4/11, 2pm CST
NE                -105
CLB             +260
Draw            +230

Thoughts: Columbus Crew, coming off a midweek trip out to Vancouver, are now tasked with flying back across the country for a road match at New England. What a brutal week for the Crew, but what an opportunity for New England to cruise to the victory and build on the momentum they’ve generated by taking 7 out of the last 9 points on offer. I think NE should be more like -115 or -120 in this one, so I love them at -105.

DCU v. NYRB, RFK Stadium, 4/11, 6pm CST
DCU              +125
NYR              +200
Draw             +220

Thoughts: DC’s only loss this season happened at Red Bull Arena in week 3, when New York beat the Black and Red 2-0 in convincing fashion. But DC are perfect at home despite their imperfect performances at RFK in 2015. This is a generally tough match to pick and my first instinct was to stay away, but  New York beat this team just a few weeks ago and are looking like a strong side. Red Bulls are coming off a bye week, they’ve showed well on the road in KC and Columbus, and they get great odds at +200. I think they are worth a look here.

POR v. ORL, Providence Park, 4/12, 4pm CST, ESPN2
POR              -165
ORL              +425
Draw             +260

Thoughts: Portland picked up a huge win at home last week, defeating FC Dallas and scoring three goals in the process. Orlando are making one of the longest road trips in MLS and have yet to play in a venue as intimidating as Portland’s. I have a hard time envisioning anything other than a W for the Timbers as Orlando simply cannot find the back of the net right now.

LAG v. SEA, StubHub Center, 4/12, 6pm CST, FS1
LAG               -125
SEA               +325
Draw             +240

Thoughts: LA are due for a win after dropping two straight and will likely give their best effort of the season on Sunday. Seattle are relying too much on the scoring of dynamic duo Clint Dempsey and Obafemi Martins in 2015. Seattle will be missing regular starter Gonzalo Pineda due to suspension and LA will be reintegrating a rested Gyassi Zardes and Robbie Keane back into the lineup.

***Official Week 6 Picks***

  • $200 on FCD  at -165
  • $200 on POR at -165
  • $150 on NE at -105
  • $150 on LA at -125
  • $100 on NYR at +200
  • $100 on SKCvRSL draw at +230

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