MLS in Vegas: Week 4

A Brief Description of MLS in Vegas:

Soccer Therapy is tracking MLS money lines at the Bovada Sportsbook during the 2015 season. Each Thursday, I’ll post a Bettor’s Advice column before the weekend’s action commences. This column will include two regular sections: The Draw Watch and The Hat-trick – click here to learn more about each section. The Bettor’s Advice column shares my opinions but does not reflect my official picks for the week. My official picks, which I’ll use to track my winnings (or losings) in 2015, can be found at the bottom of each post. I’ll revisit my official picks after each week and track those results throughout the season. In this first ever edition of MLS in Vegas, I’m just hoping to come out even. Wish me luck!

stayawyStay Away Games

DC United v. LA Galaxy, RFK Stadium, Sat. March 28th, 6pm CST
DC United    +175
LA Galaxy     +140
Draw             +230

Thoughts: After successful 2014 campaigns, DC and LA came into 2015 as legitimate conference contenders. But both have failed to find their form early in the season, with LA’s only victory coming at home against a hapless Chicago Fire team and DC’s only victory coming against a Montreal team who can’t seem to figure out how to play in MLS. Vegas and I both see LA as the favorites in this matchup but it’s a cross country trip and the Galaxy have convinced me of very little through three matches. I wouldn’t touch DC, I wouldn’t touch a draw in this one, and I need to see more from LA before I consider them good value here.

Vancouver v. Portland, BC Place, Sat. March 28th, 7pm CST
Vancouver    EVEN
Portland        +250
Draw              +240

Thoughts: Vegas sees the home team as significant favorites, and while Vancouver are dangerous at BC Place, they are 0-1 at home this season (3-1 loss to TFC in Week 1). Now Vancouver have won two straight road matches, taking 1-0 victories against lowly Chicago and expansion side Orlando with late goals in both matches. Basically, Vancouver are not a team I am comfortable betting on right now, but they can score goals very quickly, so I am hesitant to bet against them. Portland Timbers are one of Vancouver’s arch rivals (along with Seattle) and when these two teams have met in MLS, the outcome has quite frequently been an unexpected one.

Dallas v. Seattle, Toyota Stadium, Sat. March 28th, 7:30pm CST
Dallas       +115
Seattle     +230
Draw        +220

Thoughts: It is becoming tougher and tougher to predict the outcome when these two sides meet after Dallas closed the gap on Seattle in 2014. The home team maintains an edge in this series, but the winner on Saturday will be the club that best overcomes the current FIFA international date. FC Dallas are missing three regular starters, including striker Blas Perez (tied for MLS lead w/ 3 goals in 3 matches). Seattle are missing two regulars, including USMNT star Clint Dempsey (tied with Perez with 3 goals). Vegas and I both give Dallas the edge because they are at home and have been impressive through three matches to start the season. I see this as 50% Dallas win, 35% draw, 15% Seattle win, but recommend staying away due to the unknowns caused by the international date. Still though, Dallas are good value at +115.

draw watchNYCFC v. SKC, Yankee Stadium, Sat. March 28th, 6pm CST
NYCFC    +120
SKC         +210
Draw        +230

Thoughts: NYCFC are the favorites in this one and I am not sure I agree. Both of these teams are still finding themselves, but I am not about to pick an expansion side over an established charter club with a pedigree at those odds. SKC are decent value to win, but I could easily see this one as a draw.

Houston v. Colorado, BBVA Compass Stadium, Sat. March 28th, 7:30pm CST
Houston        EVEN
Colorado        +250
Draw               +240

Thoughts: Colorado might be decent value for the win with those odds as Houston is shoddy along the back line and inconsistent at home. But both of these sides employ above average GKs and currently lack true difference makers in the attacking third. This is my top draw pick of the week.

Chicago v. Philly, Toyota Park, Sun. March 29th, 4pm CST
Chicago      +150
Philly           +170
Draw            +225

Thoughts: Chicago drew a preposterous 18 out of 34 matches in 2014 but have started 2015 off with three straight losses. They’ll be at home on Sunday against a Philly team that looked awful against Dallas a week ago. Chicago are due for a result and a 0-0 or 1-1 draw seems likely in this one. Philly has drawn two out of three matches so far in 2015. WARNING: Do not watch this match. It will be boring.

Hat trickMontreal v. Orlando, Olympic Stadium, Sat. March 28th, 3pm CST
Montreal         -115
Orlando          +300
Draw               +240

Thoughts: An injury ridden Orlando side has been hit with seven international call ups and they might not be able to field a full 18 in Montreal on Saturday. The Impact are at home but will not be playing in their home stadium due to the weather. Montreal look like good value as OCSC may simply not have an MLS caliber squad this weekend. However, always exercise caution when betting on a side like Montreal to win a match, as they’ve won very few in MLS over the last 12 months.

Columbus v. NYRB, MAPFRE Stadium, Sat. March 28th, 6pm CST
Columbus       +110
NYRB              +220
Draw                +240

Thoughts: Columbus are one of the more consistent entities in MLS and I believe they could have a breakout performance on Saturday night in front of the home crowd. NYRB played well at home a week ago and look particularly strong in the midfield, making them a dangerous side to bet against. Two good teams going at it, but I like Columbus’ odds at home this weekend.

RSL v. Toronto, Rio Tinto Stadium, Sun. March 29th, 6pm CST
RSL                 -130
Toronto          +325
Draw               +250

Thoughts: Toronto are without their two USMNT studs, Michael Bradley and Jozy Altidore as well as key defender Justin Morrow (red card). It makes sense that RSL are the biggest money line favorite in MLS this week.

***Soccer Therapy’s Official Wk 4 Picks***

  • Columbus  +110
  • Draw(Hou/Col)  +240
  • Dallas  +115
  • Draw(Chi/Phi)  +225
  • RSL  -130

REVIEW: I’ll approach this as if I placed a hypothetical $100 on each official pick. That will allow me to keep track throughout the season. Columbus lost to NYRB and Dallas drew Seattle so I started off with a quick -$200. The Hou v Col draw hit and RSL rescued the win late to avoid a disastrous week for me. Chicago won 1-0, picking up their first win of the season and costing me a winning week.

Week 4 Outcome
Draws: 1/2
Winners:1/3

  • CLB to win = -$100
  • Draw: Hou v Col =  +$140
  • DAL to win = -$100
  • Draw: Chi v Phi = -$100
  • RSL to win = +$77

WEEK 4 Earnings: -$83

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