Week 11 Results:
Donuts are good for breakfast, not for Soccer Therapy’s MLS in Vegas series.
POSTPONED $100 on SKCvCOL to draw (Bet Void)
LOSS $100 on CHI to win = ($100)
LOSS $100 on RSL to win = ($100)
LOSS $100 on CLB to draw = ($100)
LOSS $100 on DC to win = ($100)
WEEK 11 TOTALS
Winnings = $0
Losses = $400
Net = ($400)
2015 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 10/23
Picking Draws: 2/7
Total Earnings: ($769)
Week 11 got off to an exciting start: after Chicago went up 2-0 and a man against NYC in the 27th minute, I was surely off and running with one of my best hits yet (Chicago were +210!). But, no. Just… no. Poo-Poo-NYCFC, who’d scored more than once in only one match this season, managed the two goal comeback – and they were down a man! Needless to say, “F” Friday Night Soccer. It was only a Friday ago that New England blew their 2-0 lead in Orlando, costing me the chance at hitting a nice +170 bet to start round 10. That’s two weeks in a row now that Friday night matches looked to be bringing home some nice cash only to fall just short thanks to some stoppage time equalizers.
Back to round 11, I lost my other three picks, not one of which was within a goal of hitting. My fifth pick on the week, SKCvCOL to draw, was postponed due to rain and the bet is therefore void. There’s just no doubt in my mind now that SKCvCOL was destined to draw and result in a nice takeaway for the series. But sometimes the gods are cruel, and week 11 was one of those times.
Some of the language in Matthew Doyle’s Sunday night column suggests he may have placed a few wagers on the weekend and gotten crushed as badly as I did. Check out the opening paragraph:
And that language from Doyle that indicates it wasn’t exactly a lucrative weekend? Here’s the obvious line:
2. D.C. United started their two-game week with a come-from-behind, 2-1 win over Orlando City at RFK. It was a typical United result in that they never looked great but still got the win. I wagered large that the same thing would happen on Sunday night, but instead it was Philadelphia that got the late goal in a 1-0 win at PPL Park.
These excerpts make me feel better. It was a weekend that began with frustration after the NYCvCHI result, only continued to deteriorate, and ended with #!@*!#*& %$#$&%! @#!% @#&!%! I can now take comfort in the fact that I’m not the only A-hole in MLS-Land that picked every singly match wrong in round 11. Anyway, on to the next round and hoping to hit some picks before this series goes four figures to the bad.
CLB v. CHI, MAPFRE Stadium, 5/22, 8:00 ET
Columbus -130
Chicago +330
Draw +250
Thoughts: Columbus have been good at home. Chicago have been poor on the road. I think the Crew could be good value on Friday night, even at -130. Something about the Midwest bores me, so I apologize for the shallow analysis on this one.
LA v. HOU, Stubhub Center, 5/22, 10:30 ET
LA Galaxy -150
Houston +400
Draw +260
Thoughts: The fact that LA are -150 suggests to me that the lines-makers know Robbie Keane is going to play. If you’re feeling frisky, consider picking a draw or Houston to win (+400? The Dynamo are better than that), but this match has Stay Away written all over it for me. Houston has been strong on the road in 2015 with a nice win in Toronto, impressive draws at DC United and LA Galaxy, and a 1-0 defeat at impossible CenturyLink Field. But if Keane plays, all bets are off.
TOR v. POR, BMO Field, 5/23, 5:00 ET
Toronto +120
Portland +210
Draw +225
Thoughts: Try predicting how either of these clubs will perform in a given match and you will begin losing money very quickly. Both Toronto and Portland have been inconsistent and unpredictable all season long. Portland may be decent value to win as Toronto could struggle to fill the void created by Jozy Altidore’s untimely injury (is he going to pull a hammy every summer?). That certainly isn’t enough to convince me. I could see either team winning by multiple goals. Just stay away.
NE v. DC, Gillette Stadium, 5/23, 7:30 ET
New England -130
DC United +330
Draw +250
Thoughts: At first glance DC seem like great value here, but they are struggling with injuries to Fabian Espindola, Luis Silva and Steve Birnbaum. New England are coming off a 4-2 loss on Wednesday night in Kansas City. I might place a small wager on DC to win given the favorable +330 line, but other than that, this one is a Stay Away.
SJ v. ORL, Avaya Stadium, 5/24, 7:00 ET, FS1
San Jose EVEN
Orlando +260
Draw +230
Thoughts: My first thought on this game is to stay away from San Jose after I lost $200 in week 6 betting against Orlando on the west coast in a match against Portland (Orlando were +425 and they won 2-0!!). But, inconsistency is often a problem for expansion franchises, and coming off their breakout 4-0 home win over LA last week, Orlando may struggle to find that same form on the road here in round 12. San Jose are far from an expansion club, and Dom Kinnear has his squad improving every week. This one would have been “Hat Trick” section worthy if I could have gotten SJ at +110 or +120, but at an EVEN line, I think I’ll stay away.
MTL v. DAL, Stade Saputo, 5/23, 8:00 ET
Montreal +120
Dallas +210
Draw +230
Thoughts: Montreal have been ravaged by injuries. Just have a look at the report below, ridiculously long and littered with good players.
My initial thought was to stay away here or look at Montreal to build on their stellar performance at home against RSL last week. But I cannot ignore that injury report, especially with Oduro now ruled out – MTL are getting thin up top: after Cameron Porter’s early injury on the turf in NE, the club made a move for MLS veteran Kenny Cooper to help in the attack – Oduro seemed to be the only constant, but now, Oduro and Cooper both find themselves next to Cameron Porter on the injury report. Dallas are actually a decent look at +210 in this one as their health situation is the opposite of Montreal’s (FC Dallas will be missing key defensive mid Kellyn Acosta – currently with the USMNT youth squad at the U20 World Cup). Montreal have never beaten Dallas and the two clubs played to a 0-0 draw when they last met in Canada. Perhaps a draw merits consideration.
COL v. VAN, DSG Park, 5/23, 9:00 ET
Colorado +150
Vancouver +175
Draw +225
Thoughts: Vancouver seem like good value to win at +175. It’s far from a sure outcome, but a Whitecaps W is the only result I would consider wagering on in this match.
RSL v. NYC, Rio Tinto Stadium, 5/23, 10:00 ET
Real Salt Lake -115
New York +300
Draw +230
Thoughts: I’m tempted to go big on RSL in this one. It feels right. I had a good feel for RSL two weeks ago when I backed off the CHIvRSL match, but I obviously misjudged when I picked them to beat Montreal last Saturday (MTL 4-1 RSL). New York are good for a goal max, so I look at this as betting on RSL to bag two or more goals at home. With RSL at -115 for the win, that’s a bet that has some value.
SEA v. SKC, CenturyLink Field, 5/23, 10:00 ET
Seattle EVEN
Kansas City +260
Draw +230
Thoughts: SKC are coming off of an impressive midweek win over New England. After going down a goal, they stormed back to score four goals in just 17 minutes. After the emotional win on Wednesday and trip out to Seattle, I’m not counting on much from SKC on Saturday. Look for this match in my official picks as I’ll be taking the Sounders to win.
NYR v. PHI, Red Bull Arena, 5/24, 5:00 ET, FS1
New York -150
Philly +375
Draw +265
Thoughts: I like NYRB quite a bit. Maurice Edu is suspended (yellow card accumulation) and New York are healthier than Philly. I don’t discuss tactics too much on this blog, but NYRB have arguably the strongest midfield in MLS (Sacha Kljestan, Dax McCarty and Felipe Martins) and Philly is without Edu. Red Bulls will dominate the ball and the center of the pitch at home, and I think that bodes well when gambling on soccer. Forget the odds in this one, smart money takes the Red Bulls to win here at -150, -175 or any other number.
***Official Week 12 Picks***
- $300 on RSL to win at -115
- $300 on SEA to win at EVEN
- $300 on NYR to win at -150
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