Week 10 Results:
I was happy with my picks in week 10, but unfortunately, some hit and some didn’t. Everything was off to a great start when NE (+170) took a 2-0 advantage late on Friday night in the Citrus Bowl, but then they collapsed and allowed two late Orlando goals (including a 90th minute equalizer off the bar). DC United could’ve and probably should’ve won at home, but they didn’t, and the 1-1 result serves as notice that SKC is a bit of a Stay Away team for 2015. Of course, as unlucky as we were with the NE pick, we were quite fortunate to hit Portland at +180 as they narrowly managed the win in Montreal. The Dallas and NYRB picks were smart money, but the Toronto pick was maybe my dumbest of the series (my sense now is that betting on TFC is the NFL equivalent of betting on teams like the Raiders or the Lions: inconsistent, mostly bad, and nothing should ever surprise you).
LOSS $100 on NE to win = ($100)
LOSS $150 on DC to win = ($150)
LOSS $200 on TOR to win = ($200)
HIT! $100 on POR to win at +180 = $180
HIT! $150 on DAL to win at +130 = $195
HIT! $300 on NYR to win at -155: (100/155)*300 = $193
WEEK 10 TOTALS
Winnings = $568
Losses = $450
Net = $118
2015 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 10/20
Picking Draws: 2/6
Total Earnings: ($369)
This week we’ve got a complete ten game slate and the money lines coming from Bovada are quite revealing. Check out some of my comments below as I was both surprised and intrigued by a number of lines this week.
DAL v. NYRB, Toyota Stadium, 5/15, 9 ET
Dallas +120
New York +200
Draw +230
Thoughts: New York are coming off an emotional win against local rival NYCFC. They went down a man in the 36th minute when defender Matt Miazga picked up his second yellow of the match, but you could hardly tell watching the match. NYRB, either with their quality or adrenaline or both, dominated the match. The match was on Sunday evening while Dallas finished off LA on Saturday night in Frisco. NYRB might have less in the legs after a rivalry match in which they played down a man for 50+ minutes, not to mention they’ll be traveling to Frisco on a short week. And that red card for Matt Miazga means New York will be without a central defender that has started eight of nine matches for the club so far this season. All of that against an FC Dallas club that has already collected 17 goals in 2015, but I am still not sold in this one. NYRB have quality and are well coached, and FCD have performed poorly against them the last two years.
VAN v. SEA, BC Place, 5/16, 7 ET
Vancouver +135
Seattle +135
Draw +230
Thoughts: Forget the lines on this one. This is a classic “stay-away” match in my book as two good teams meet in Vancouver. Seattle haven’t been great on the road this season: two wins (against lowly COL and NYCFC), two losses (against better sides LA and CLB) and a scoreless draw (in Dallas with a man advantage for about 70 minutes). Those results indicate that, when on the road, Seattle can get results against bad teams but are average at best when playing good teams. Maybe Vancouver are smart money at +135 given Seattle’s road form and the fact that the ‘Caps are coming off of a 3-0 win at BC Place. But in this Cascadia Cup match, I’ll keep my money away from the craziness so I can relax and enjoy the contest.
NE v. TOR, Gillette Stadium, 5/16, 7:30 ET
New England -125
Toronto +300
Draw +250
Thoughts: New England could dominate on the day but I’m staying away. TFC have firepower and that’s just not something I want to bet against at -125.
SKC v. COL, Sporting Park, 5/16, 8:30 ET
Sporting -120
Colorado +325
Draw +240
Thoughts: I see this match and for some reason I think draw. I hate SKC at -120 and I’m obviously not crazy about any team that’s +325 on the road. SKC have been poor at home this season and just don’t strike me as the kind of team that can force results at this point in the season (as evidenced by their 5 draws in 10 matches). They have 2 wins at home in 2015, each by a narrow one goal margin and against unimpressive opposition in Philly and Chicago. On the other hand, Colorado have picked up some nice road results this season with draws at NYRB and LA and a 4-0 spanking of FC Dallas down in Texas. This is my top draw pick of the week.
SJ v. CLB, Avaya Stadium, 5/16, 10:30 ET
San Jose +150
Columbus +165
Draw +220
Thoughts: I like Columbus at those odds but San Jose have been a difficult side for most MLS teams to deal with this season. They’ve given up just 11 goals in ten matches but something will have to give as Columbus have scored 15 times in nine matches in 2015. I could see both teams being content with a draw and the game playing out conservatively, but I don’t see either team dominating.
ORL v. LA, Citrus Bowl, 5/17, 5 ET on ESPN2
Orlando +155
LA +155
Draw +230
Thoughts: Interesting to see both teams with the same odds to win. LA are going cross country and still without MVP Robbie Keane. Orlando have yet to win a match at home and are also coming off a Wednesday night match in DC where they suffered a 2-1 defeat after taking the early lead. I could see this game ending 1-0 to either side, but I’m very tempted to pick a draw here.
NYCFC v. CHI, Yankee Stadium, 5/15, 7 ET
New York +120
Chicago +210
Draw +220
Thoughts: I am not sure what has changed here and why NYC are significant favorites in this one. The money line here gives Chicago no respect and shows that Vegas either thinks more of NYC or less of Chicago than I do. I like Chicago in this one at better than 2-1 odds. Both clubs have struggled to score in 2015, finding the back of the net a total of seven times apiece (NYC have played ten games while Chicago have played eight – pathetic for both sides though). Chicago have yet to win a match on the road in 2015. But the Fire are a more complete team than NYC and aren’t too far removed from a nice three match winning streak in which they excelled at collecting unimpressive scalps. This one could be a stay away, but at +210, I’m intrigued by Chicago (who’ve scored 7 goals in 8 matches and are win-less on the road).
MTL v. RSL, Stade Saputo, 5/16, 4 ET
MTL +130
RSL +200
Draw +220
Thoughts: I am surprised to see Montreal at +130 here after yet another mid week game for the Canadians (they took down Toronto in an emotional Canadian Cup semifinal match on Wednesday). RSL picked up a nice win in Chicago last Saturday and are playing a Montreal team that’s really struggled in MLS so far this season (3L, 2D). I love the Mormons here with the 2-to-1 odds.
HOU v. POR, BBVA Compass Stadium, 5/16, 8:30 ET
Houston +145
Portland +175
Draw +220
Thoughts: Houston have been absolutely horrendous at home in 2015. Despite wins over Columbus and Montreal, they’ve had embarrassing efforts against Orlando, SKC, Dallas and San Jose. Portland are coming off of a road win and possibly rounding into form, so I like them at +175 against the Dynamo.
PHI v. DC, PPL Park, 5/17, 7 ET on Fox Sports 1
Philly +150
DC +160
Draw +230
Thoughts: Like Orlando, the midweek match on Wednesday puts DC at a slight disadvantage in this one. Still though, DC are averaging better than two points per match on the season and the Union are terrible, so I like United at +160.
***Official Week 11 Picks***
- $100 on COL to draw at +240
- $100 on CLB to draw at +220
- $100 on CHI to win at +210
- $100 on RSL to win at +200
- $100 on DC to win at +160
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