Damn you, LA Galaxy! They cost me $400 and what would have been my best outing yet in week 9 by failing to take down the Rapids. Alas, Soccer Therapy’s MLS in Vegas series suffers another costly week and finds itself in an even bigger hole now. The only places to go from here are the bar, for a rejuvenation of confidence, and the Bovada Sportsbook, for some week 10 picks. I don’t like to use the word “should” in this series, but good values abound in MLS here in round 10, and I’m thinking this should be my finest week yet picking games.
Week 9 Results:
The week 9 picks had real potential until the damn Galaxy screwed everything up on Saturday night. They just aren’t a strong side at the moment and I was lucky to make anything off of them in week 6. Those season totals below are getting ugly, but I suppose the old “it’s a long season” line can be a good thing sometimes.
- LOSS $400 on LAG to win = ($400)
- LOSS $100 on PHIvTOR draw = ($100)
- HIT! $100 on SEA at +135 = 100 * 1.35 = $135
- HIT! $200 on SKC at -150 = (100/150) * 200 = $133
WEEK 9 TOTALS
Winnings = $268
Losses = $500
Net = ($232)
2015 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 7/14
Picking Draws: 2/6
Total Earnings: ($487)
VAN v. PHI, BC Place, 5/9, 7 ET
Vancouver -140
Philadelphia +400
Draw +250
Thoughts: No no no no no no no no. I wouldn’t touch this match with a 10 foot pole. Vancouver simply aren’t consistent enough to be considered good value at -140 here, even if they are hosting the worst team in MLS. Despite the Caps’ great start to 2015, they’ve not played their best at BC Place. This one will probably be a slaughter though, I just don’t have the cojones.
CLB v. SEA, MAPFRE Stadium, 5/9, 7:30 ET
Columbus +140
Seattle +190
Draw +220
Thoughts: This is a tough one for me. But anytime you can get Seattle at near 2-1 odds it’s worth a look. I think it’s mostly a stay away though.
COL v. SJ, DSG Park, 5/8, 10 ET
Colorado -110
San Jose +290
Draw +220
Thoughts: I can see a Rapids win or draw in this one. SJ have been better than Colorado this year but are coming off a midweek game in Houston on Tuesday night. If it were another week I’d look more closely at this one, but I believe there are better values around MLS in round 10.
CHI v. RSL, Toyota Park, 5/9, 3 ET
CHI +120
RSL +220
Draw +220
Thoughts: I am kind of in love with Chicago here and think there is money to be made in this one. That makes me think Chicago will lose or draw. RSL are traveling after a Wednesday matchup against the Galaxy but Chicago will be without difference making DP, Ghanian forward David Accam. RSL are struggling to put shots on frame and Chicago are struggling to finish off their chances. I predict a 0-0 final scoreline.
Two Hat Tricks! That’s right folks, this week I like six clubs to win. Let’s see what happens.
ORL v. NE, Citrus Bowl, 5/8, 8 ET
Orlando +150
New England +170
Draw +220
Thoughts: New England have been hot of late and OCSC have done nothing at home. Can’t figure out why NE are +170, making me suspicious of this one, but I believe they are one of the values of the season here. Not to mention Orlando have just lost star attack man Kevin Molino for the season thanks to a mid week friendly – that’ll boost club morale.
MTL v. POR, Stade Saputo, 5/9, 4 ET
Montreal +150
Portland +180
Draw +220
Thoughts: Montreal have a Wednesday Canadian Cup match to deal with and they’re coming off of en emotionally and physically draining exit from the CONCACAF Champs League. They’ll have less in the legs than PTFC, who’ll be desperate to grab some points before falling too far behind in the competitive western conference standings (a slow start to 2014 saw the Timbers miss the playoffs by one point).
DCU v. SKC, RFK Stadium, 5/9, 7 ET
DC +140
KC +180
Draw +220
Thoughts: DC at +140 at home is tempting – how can you bet against them at this point? I think they could be a class above KC as well. They are solid value here as I would have put them at +125 or so. I actually look at these two teams as similar, except DC has Fabian Espindola while SKC does not.
DAL v. LA, Toyota Stadium, 5/9, 8:30 ET
Dallas +130
LA +200
Draw +220
Thoughts: I like Dallas in this one, but I also like Dallas in general which skews my perspective. There is draw potential, but I’d either bet on Dallas to win or stay away. LA are coming off a lightning delayed match in Utah on Wednesday night. They will again be missing MVP Robbie Keane and playmaker Jose Villareal. The home team is undefeated in this matchup dating back to July of 2012 (when LA defeated a bad FCD team 1-0 in Frisco). In 2014, the home team won every match-up. Given the history of home success, and the fact that Dallas has other advantages such as a more complete lineup and fresher legs, they seem like great value here.
TOR v. HOU, BMO Field, 5/10, 5 ET
Toronto -125
Houston +330
Draw +250
Thoughts: Toronto’s crowd will give them a real boost as they’ll be seeing Giovinco and Altidore in red for the first time – this is TFC’s first home match of 2015 after a seven game road trip to begin the season. TFC have been improving while Houston have allowed eight goals over the last two weeks (before holding SJ to just one in a 1-0 loss in Houston on Tuesday night). I would have put TFC at -140, so I see them as good value in this one.
NYRB v. NYC, Red Bull Arena, 5/10, 7 ET
Red Bulls -155
City +450
Draw +250
Thoughts: A rivalry match but I think NYC are reeling right now. NYRB are one of the stronger sides in the league, will be at home with a great crowd behind them, and looking to assert themselves as soccer kings of the Big Apple. This is where is see -155 as a good thing because if I were setting the line, NYRB would be -175 or worse. Leading up to the game, this is one of the biggest mismatches I’ve seen in MLS all year.
With all these surefire winners to choose from, I am glad I have that $1,000 weekly wager limit, because I’ll be using all of it this week.
***Official Week 10 Picks***
- $100 on NE to win at +170
- $100 on POR to win at +180
- $150 on DC to win at +140
- $150 on DAL to win at +130
- $200 on TOR to win at -125
- $300 on NYR to win at -155
Soccer Therapy 