MLS in Vegas: Week 2

mls in veg 2Week 1 was interesting. I put my eggs in the right basket when I bet $250 on FC Dallas, who cruised to a 2-0 win. But Colorado couldn’t manage the draw in San Jose and Seattle blew a match they should have won 1-0 in front of 40,000 fans. Let’s see how the wagers turned out:

WEEK 1 REVIEW
LOSS $50 on SJvCOL to draw = ($50)
HIT!
$250 on FCD to win at -$170 = $147
LOSS
$110 on SEA to win = ($110)
Weekly Total($13)

NEW 2016 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 1/2
Picking Draws: 0/1
Total Earnings: ($13)

So it could be worse, but I am obviously disappointed about the $110 wasted on Seattle – silly bets like that are the difference between good and bad weeks. Looking at week 2, at first glance, there are no surefire bets. This is likely because most of the better teams in this week’s matchups are playing on the road, and of course, it’s still very early in the year. Either way, I can’t help myself and there are a few decent values out there.

SATURDAY

  • 3:00 ET – NE (-175) vs. DCU (+425), Draw (+305)
  • 4:00 ET – MTL (+145) vs. NYRB (+170), Draw (+245)
  • 4:00 ET – RSL (+115) vs. SEA (+230), Draw (+230)
  • 7:00 ET – COL (+185) vs. LAG (+135), Draw (+240)
  • 7:30 ET – CLB (-200) vs. PHI (+475), Draw (+330)
  • 8:30 ET – SKC (+115) vs. VAN (+235), Draw (+230)
  • 8:30 ET – HOU (+165) vs. FCD (+160), Draw (+225)

SUNDAY

  • 4:00 ET – NYC (+135) vs. TOR (+170), Draw (+265)
  • 6:00 ET – SJ (+140) vs. POR (+185), Draw (+225)

Real Salt Lake v. Seattle

I am not so convinced that RSL are a good bet in this one, but I think a Seattle win combined with the draw might offer good value. Both wagers pay out at better than 2-1, and theoretically, there is a 67% chance one of those outcomes occurs (especially given that Seattle are the stronger side). Get your MLS match preview, including injury and disciplinary reports right here.

Colorado v. Los Angeles

I know LA are on the road, and the Rapids will be buoyed by a strong crowd for their home opener, but to get the Galaxy at +135 against a shabby side like the Rapids seems like a fine opportunity. Whether LA blows them out or breaks their hearts in stoppage time, I just don’t see a way for the Rapids tonight.

Columbus v. Philadelphia

There will be a time this season where I don’t bet against Philly every week, but that time is not now. The Union looked inept against FC Dallas in week 1, creating few chances as they integrated six new players into their starting XI. A more serious concern than the chemistry has to be that there just aren’t enough difference makers on the pitch in Philly – guys that scare teams. Columbus are basically the antithesis of the Union. They had minimal turnover from 2015 to 2016, they have difference makers and flair all over the pitch, and they’ll be at home thirsty for blood after losing a tough season opener in Portland. Even at (-200), the Crew are an absolute no brainer this week.

Houston v. FC Dallas

FC Dallas have been pulling Houston’s pants down for about two years now. But one of the major forces behind all of those pants-ings was forward Fabian Castillo, who is questionable at best going into Saturday. FC Dallas are still intriguing as they pay out at (+160) for the win and have dominated in Houston of late. This one is probably a stay away.

San Jose v. Portland

San Jose have a nice new stadium but Portland have been on fire for quite some time now. This one feels like the Rapids v. Galaxy game this week. Anytime you get good odds on a good team playing a bad team, you have to consider it. When I see the champs at (+185) playing against a shabby San Jose side, I am intrigued.

***Official Week 2 Picks***

  • $100 on LAG to win at +135
  • $250 on CLB to win at -200
  • $100 on PTFC to win at +185

 

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly from MLS in 2015

It’s a little overdue, what with the 2016 season days away from kicking off. But I just have to get something up here for the 2015 season. Last year I posted the inaugural The Good, Bad and the Ugly from MLS piece in October, recapping the 2014 regular season before a champion had even been crowned. This year will be a little bit different, but I’d like to keep the yearly post alive. With that being said, below is my far-too-late 2015 MLS review.

Picture5THE GOOD

Montreal’s CCL Run
Montreal took MLS fans for an absolute joy ride through the CONCACAF Champions League knockout stages in the spring of 2015. After making it through the group stage, few of us gave the Impact any chance in their 2-leg quarterfinal matchup vs. Liga MX side Pachuca. And few of us will soon forget the incredible closing moments of that tie, when rookie Cameron Porter scored at the death to send his club through to the semis. How could anyone ever forget that face?

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Porter’s celebration after his 94′ goal put Montreal through to the CCL semis

The run was equal parts entertaining and unfathomable, and after defeating Costa Rican side Alajuelense in the semifinals, it came up just short in the final against Liga MX giants Club America.

Sebastian Giovinco
We thought he’d do well, maybe even dominate, but Sebastian Giovinco surpassed all expectations in his first MLS campaign. The 2015 MVP tore through the league scoring 22 goals and collecting 16 assists, becoming the first player in league history to top those two categories in the same season. Giovinco toyed with MLS in 2015, and I can’t wait to see what he does in 2016.

sebastian-giovinco-toronto-fc-mls-20150718_1x0uy33oblqak1krb0xk3yfl4a

Sebas knocked it out of the park in his first MLS campaign

The Other Gio
While the Italian Gio set the league on fire and spurred a hapless club on to their first ever postseason appearance, a Mexican Gio made some waves of his own. Giovani dos Santos, the El Tri star with clubs like Barca, Tottenham and Villareal on his resume, made the mid-season transfer to MLS powerhouse LA Galaxy. Gio had some nice moments for LA, but the Galaxy were never up to the task as a whole in 2015. I am recognizing this in 2015’s “GOOD” section because the acquisition of a young, hugely popular and talented Mexican represents a new kind of coup. If MLS can continue signing El Tri stars, it will elevate the level of play, but more importantly, it will work wonders in terms of boosting the league’s profile.

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Giovani was an absolute hit with the fans, but couldn’t make the difference for LA in 2016

TV Exposure & Extensive Coverage – The 2015 season is ancient history by now, but it may be looked back upon as a major turning point in terms of when the league was finally able to get some television exposure. Thanks to a new deal, the league featured primetime, nationally televised matches all season long on Univision Deportes/UniMas (34 matches), ESPN (34 matches) and FoxSports1 (34 matches). It may seem like small potatoes compared with the big boys (NFL,NBA, MLB etc.) of American sports, but this is relatively significant exposure for pro soccer in this country. A weekly MLS broadcast on the likes of FoxSports and ESPN is a breath of fresh air for me. MLS also managed to get some nice exposure across the pond, signing 4-year deals with Sky Sports and Eurosport, among other international broadcast agreements. Coverage of American soccer has grown exponentially in recent years. The 2015 US Open Cup final was nationally broadcast on ESPN2 – it was only a few years ago that you couldn’t even find the tournament on ESPN’s website. Lower leagues like the USL and NASL have done a superb job of live streaming matches, mostly in high def and mostly with sufferable commentary. Whether online or on TV, soccer has become much easier to consume.

Expansion – NYCFC and Orlando each were successful in their inaugural campaigns. Both clubs had encouraging moments on the pitch and neither were ever expansion pushovers. Both clubs were buoyed by outstanding fan support and were entertaining to follow throughout 2015 for that reason. A lot of MLS folks have had their doubts about venturing back into Florida after fallouts in Tampa and Miami, but Orlando City’s attendance figures (32,847/game) in year one suggest the Lions are here to stay. As for NYCFC, well, I’ll get back to them in the “UGLY” section.


THE BAD

Major League Soccer has made an obvious effort to sign stars from the US national team. Deuce in Seattle, Bradley and Altidore in Toronto, Mix in New York, Brek Shea in Orlando, and so on. Despite this, the league still refuses to recognize all official FIFA dates throughout each season, scheduling matches that put its clubs in compromised personnel situations. MLS also draws a significant amount of its talent from CONCACAF nations like Honduras and Jamaica. You will never see this blog arguing for an American soccer calendar that aligns with Europe’s. The weather simply does not allow for reasonable or even playable soccer in half of the league’s markets from December to February. Having said that, the league could work harder to accommodate its internationals by honoring all of FIFA’s international dates. More double game weeks would be fine, but I hate watching my club play when our best player is off in Colombia.


THE UGLY

MLS in Vegas – After getting crushed to the tune of minus $747 during my last week of action (Matchday 28), it’s safe to say the 2015 MLS in Vegas campaign has earned its place in the “UGLY” section. Gambling can be cruel, especially in sports. Patience, discipline and structure is the recipe for success, but there’s still that whole thing about “that’s why they play the games.” The final numbers for 2015 are below. Better luck next year, SoccerTherapy.

2015 SEASON
Picking Winners: 22/47 (47%)
Picking Draws: 2/8
Total Earnings: ($1,406)

Kreis & NYCFC The expansion club got itself the ideal manager in Jason Kreis, the architect behind Real Salt Lake’s fantastic success from 2008-2013. Out in Utah, Kreis took RSL took the brink of a CCL title, won MLS Cup (2009) and enjoyed a handful of impressive playoff runs. And even though Jason Kreis didn’t turn RSL into an MLS power over night, it seems that’s what was expected of him in New York.

Kreis, the former head man at RSL and NYCFC, is now an assistant with the USMNT

NYCFC used all three designated player slots on old, overpriced stars from abroad. David Villa performed well and was a positive force for the club in their expansion season. But to add pieces like Pirlo and Lampard, expensive and slow guys in a league full of young, fast, strong and cheap guys, just doesn’t make sense to me. Management not only burned the club’s resources in signing a pair of old slow guys, they also placed Kreis in a position where he had to play these new acquisitions, forcing him to put square pegs in a round hole each time he put out a starting XI. Then, when he isn’t successful enough (not sure what management expected in year one on the pitch), they fire him! Because he couldn’t take their horribly designed roster to the playoffs!! They fired the guy who has proven he can build a winner in this league!!! Because he didn’t build a winner overnight with that sh*tty roster!!!!

Needless to say, NYCFC replaced Kreis with Patrick Vieira, a man with basically no coaching experience. Sure, the former French international was a fine player, but he has minimal knowledge of all the whacky quirks that make MLS different from other leagues around the world.

That’s it for the 2015 recap. I’m sure I overlooked quite a bit of good stuff. Look out for an MLS in Vegas post this weekend. Happy Soccering in 2016!

More Set-Piece Genius from Papi

One of my Radar posts back in March featured a short paragraph titled Papi’s Set Pieces. Obviously the focus was on the second year head man at FC Dallas, Oscar Pareja, and his brilliant set piece tactics early in the 2015 season. I’ve taken that paragraph and re-posted it below. Below that, you’ll find a new paragraph and video featuring another creative play Oscar drew up during the MLS Cup 2015 Playoffs.


Papi’s Set Pieces

Pareja also deserves attention for drawing up a clever set piece in three consecutive matches to start the season. Each one is unique, taking full advantage of Dallas’ legitimate dead ball threats: Mauro Diaz’ right foot and Michel’s left foot. Video links and a brief description of each play are listed below:

Week 1: FCD v. San Jose: A sneaky, clever design as everyone in the building thought Diaz would try and curve it over the wall and under the cross bar. Perez should have scored.

Week 2: FCD v. SKC: I thought Michel would whip one directly into the box, but he caught SKC off guard by quickly tapping it to Mauro Diaz, who tapped it right back to Michel in a more advanced position. Just like the chance in week 1, this was quite simple, but the play utilized the threat of Diaz and Michel to trick the defense and create a quality scoring chance.

Week 3 in Philly: The Union were surely concerned about Michel putting a dangerous ball into the box on this one, but then he tricked them, chipping to an open Tesho Akindele. This one put FCD in a fantastic attacking position again. Defenses across MLS are showing FCD respect inside the 18 yard box, giving us room to work the edges in dangerous set piece situations. Not the best video, but you get the idea.


All of that was back in March, and FC Dallas never amounted to a very dangerous set-piece club in 2015. It’s November now and the Hoops just polished off Seattle in the Western Conference semifinals. During the first leg of that series, in the 45th minute, Oscar Pareja’s club ran another clever and gashing play off a dangerous dead ball situation. Unfortunately, Dallas came up empty again, letting another of Oscar’s brilliant set-piece designs go to waste.

Here’s the link: watch as Mauro sends the D one way, gets the ball back, and places a beautiful thru ball at Watson’s feet.

MLS in Vegas: Week 18

Wooooo Hoooooo! I had a good week and am proud to report the deficit is under $1,000! Last week I placed one simple wager. It was an obvious one and it paid off. MLS in Vegas has been a rough road to this point, but an educational one as well. After 17 weeks of MLS play, most clubs are at or around the halfway point in their season, leaving plenty of time for this series to make a comeback in 2015. Now let’s have a look at these new season totals and see how much work there is to do.

HIT! $400 on SKC at -$155 = (100/155) * 400 = $258

NEW 2015 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 13/29
Picking Draws: 2/7
Total Earnings: ($818)

While I’m thrilled to the deficit back into three figures, MLS in Vegas could to turn into a real sh*t show over the next month: The US Open Cup resumes on July 21/22 and 8 MLS clubs will be taking part. There is also the small matter of 44 MLSers receiving call ups to represent their country in the upcoming Gold Cup (which is going to be epic by the way). The international absences and additional USOC matches can be a double edged sword – with so many backups and so much uncertainty, these MLS summer matches become even more unpredictable than they were in the spring. At the same time, we see some teams less impacted by international call-ups and that have already been eliminated from the USOC. Those clubs will have an excellent opportunity in July to make a real move up the table, and, as winnable match-ups present themselves, we’ll be looking to capitalize. Columbus Crew, Montreal Impact, Portland Timbers and DC United are four clubs that have shown they can score goals and win matches, and all four of those clubs will only be missing one player during the Gold Cup. On the other hand, FC Dallas and RSL will be missing five players, and not just average contributors either. RSL will be missing legendary GK Nick Rimando, midfield maestro Kyle Beckerman, and the goal scoring Costa Rican, Alvaro Saborio. FC Dallas will be missing Blas Perez, a spiritual leader that’s led the club in goals since arriving in 2012, 2014 Rookie of the Year Tesho Akindele, and a couple of fullbacks as well (Moises Hernandez and Je-Vaughn Watson).

Knowing roster depth and the players that managers will be putting in their XIs during MLS play over the next month is crucial. For example, I don’t know much, but I do know that FC Dallas have a thin back line that’s already dealt with a number of injuries in 2015. With the Gold Cup, that back line loses starters at LB and RB. July could really suck for FC Dallas fans, but it could be great for those that invest in Dallas losing. The diligent and well read gamblers will be the ones who come out ahead over the next few weeks.


Montreal v. NYCFC – July 4th, 8:00 ET

I am quite intrigued by Montreal at an EVEN line to win here. Montreal are one of those clubs less impacted by the Gold Cup call-ups and have shown in 2015 that they can win in MLS play and not just cup competition. While NYCFC are finding a groove for the first time in club history (10 points from their last five matches), they now lose Mix Diskerud for the next month, a bad sign for a club that’s been inconsistent finding the back of the net. *Side note – Mix seems like he’s been playing lights out since that April friendly against Mexico in the Alamodome. I really hope we get to see a lot of him during the Gold Cup.*

LA Galaxy v. Toronto FC – July 4th, 10:30 ET

The Galaxy are just -$155 to win here. They are at home and playing a Toronto team that was just ravaged by Gold Cup call ups. While the Galaxy will be missing some All Star caliber contributors of their own, Omar Gonzalez, Jaime Penedo and Gyassi Zardes, they still have Bruce Arena, Robbie Keane and host of other quality players and leaders that make this one a fairly sure bet for me.

Portland v. San Jose – July 5th, 11:00 ET, ESPN 2

Portland are on fire and San Jose will be without two key offensive cogs, Cordell Cato and Chris Wondolowski (an MVP candidate thus far in 2015). With PTFC at -$170 to win, I am very intrigued. However, when picking matches involving Portland, my record is sketchy.


***Official Week 18 Picks***

  • $150 on MTL to win at EVEN
  • $300 on LAG to win at -155
  • $250 on PTFC to win at -170

MLS in Vegas: Week 17

If you are unfamiliar with my MLS in Vegas series, it’s because its had its own page on the site up to this point. Now I’ve decided to move it over to the blog space, and you can learn more about the series and see my picks so far in 2015 here if you like.

Now it’s time to catch up with the last few weeks.

Week 12 Picks
EPIC FAIL $300 on NYR to win at -150 = ($300)
HIT! $300 on RSL to win at -115 = $260
LOSS $300 on SEA to win = ($300)

Week 15 Picks
LOSS $300 on CLB to win at +115 = ($300)
HIT! $400 on SEA to win at -120 = $333

NEW 2015 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 12/28
Picking Draws: 2/7
Total Earnings: ($1,076)


Now that that depressing chore is behind us, time to move on to week 17 in an attempt to get this deficit back into three figures! Unfortunately, this is MLS rivalry week and 14 clubs will be in action on Wednesday, making the weekend games particularly difficult to forecast….


Ooops! Ran out of time to add much substance to this post. For now, I leave you with my pick of the week because I think it’s a winner and this series could use some winners right now.

I love SKC at -$155 to beat Colorado at Sporting Park. So here is my official pick, the only one of the week –

$400 on SKC


Oh, and one last thing. Cuando esta #ViernesDeFutbol, Fabian le gusta festejar. You simply have to watch this highlight.