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About CT

Marketing Development Professional in Denver, Colorado. I love sports, food, pictures, music, beer and all forms of golf. I have a blog about soccer, SoccerTherapy.net, an outlet where I indulge in the wonders of the Beautiful Game, among other things. Give it a shot sometime.

MLS in Vegas: Week 5

mls in veg 2Week 2 was darn ugly, so I took week 3 off. Week 4 only featured four matches and none offered too much in the way of money-line value, so after a two week respite, MLS in Vegas is back for more abuse in week 5. Check out the week 2 recap below, not much to analyze there…

WEEK 2 REVIEW
LOSS $100 on LAG to win = ($100)
LOSS
$250 on CLB to win = ($250)
LOSS
$100 on PTFC to win = ($100)
Weekly Total($450)

NEW 2016 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 1/5
Picking Draws: 0/1
Total Earnings: ($463)

An ugly start to the season to say the least. The good news is that week 5 is already off to a promising start:

Picture3Notice the date and time if you have any questions about the authenticity of this wager. Of course, you can always check my @SoccerTherapy Twitter profile or check out the Tweet itself right here. So we are up a quick $119.04 to start the week! Let’s just see if I can’t F this up somehow.

SKC (-$125) v. RSL (+$345) – 8:30 PM ET

Two of the better performing teams in all of MLS through four weeks go at it in Missouri. Both clubs will be weakened by contributions to the recent FIFA weekend, where SKC star Graham Zusi and RSL vet Kyle Beckerman both saw decent action in WCQ play. These two teams really don’t like each other so a heated and intense game is to be expected. I wouldn’t be surprised if some inadvertent home cooking from the refs did the Claret and Cobalt in tonight.

FCD (-$125) v. CLB (+$305) – 9:00 PM ET

Columbus are off to a wretched start so far in 2016, one that cost this series $250 in week 2 when they lost 2-1 to the lowly Union. On the other hand, FC Dallas are off to their typical hot start and, as always, the Hoops are deadly in Frisco. This is a much better value than SKC in my view, but Columbus are a strong side with a good pedigree. Sooner than later, the Crew are likely to start playing the type of soccer that took them to MLS Cup in 2015.

SJ (-$145) v. DCU (+$385) – 10:30 PM ET

San Jose are off to a nice start in 2016, especially at Avaya Stadium, where they’ve taken all six points available to them. DCU are a bit of a dumpster fire at the moment. I honestly think the Quakes should be more like -$175 to win, so you will certainly see a wager on this one below.

OCSC (+$130) v. PTFC (+$200) – 8:00 PM ET (Sunday)

Kaka is expected to make his debut and that Citrus Bowl crowd is crazy as it is. Portland are more than capable of winning on the road and will be more familiar with the artificial surface than most MLS clubs, but +$130 seems like good value here for Orlando. Remember, Orlando pulled off one of the most lucrative money-line upsets of 2015, defeating Portland at Providence park in week 6 when they were +$425 to win! This match may be ripe for the double wager on the Orlando win and a draw.

***Official Week 5 Picks**

  • $125 on NE to win at -105
  • $75 on SKC to win at -125
  • $75 on FCD to win at -125
  • $150 on SJ to win at -145

MLS in Vegas: Week 2

mls in veg 2Week 1 was interesting. I put my eggs in the right basket when I bet $250 on FC Dallas, who cruised to a 2-0 win. But Colorado couldn’t manage the draw in San Jose and Seattle blew a match they should have won 1-0 in front of 40,000 fans. Let’s see how the wagers turned out:

WEEK 1 REVIEW
LOSS $50 on SJvCOL to draw = ($50)
HIT!
$250 on FCD to win at -$170 = $147
LOSS
$110 on SEA to win = ($110)
Weekly Total($13)

NEW 2016 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 1/2
Picking Draws: 0/1
Total Earnings: ($13)

So it could be worse, but I am obviously disappointed about the $110 wasted on Seattle – silly bets like that are the difference between good and bad weeks. Looking at week 2, at first glance, there are no surefire bets. This is likely because most of the better teams in this week’s matchups are playing on the road, and of course, it’s still very early in the year. Either way, I can’t help myself and there are a few decent values out there.

SATURDAY

  • 3:00 ET – NE (-175) vs. DCU (+425), Draw (+305)
  • 4:00 ET – MTL (+145) vs. NYRB (+170), Draw (+245)
  • 4:00 ET – RSL (+115) vs. SEA (+230), Draw (+230)
  • 7:00 ET – COL (+185) vs. LAG (+135), Draw (+240)
  • 7:30 ET – CLB (-200) vs. PHI (+475), Draw (+330)
  • 8:30 ET – SKC (+115) vs. VAN (+235), Draw (+230)
  • 8:30 ET – HOU (+165) vs. FCD (+160), Draw (+225)

SUNDAY

  • 4:00 ET – NYC (+135) vs. TOR (+170), Draw (+265)
  • 6:00 ET – SJ (+140) vs. POR (+185), Draw (+225)

Real Salt Lake v. Seattle

I am not so convinced that RSL are a good bet in this one, but I think a Seattle win combined with the draw might offer good value. Both wagers pay out at better than 2-1, and theoretically, there is a 67% chance one of those outcomes occurs (especially given that Seattle are the stronger side). Get your MLS match preview, including injury and disciplinary reports right here.

Colorado v. Los Angeles

I know LA are on the road, and the Rapids will be buoyed by a strong crowd for their home opener, but to get the Galaxy at +135 against a shabby side like the Rapids seems like a fine opportunity. Whether LA blows them out or breaks their hearts in stoppage time, I just don’t see a way for the Rapids tonight.

Columbus v. Philadelphia

There will be a time this season where I don’t bet against Philly every week, but that time is not now. The Union looked inept against FC Dallas in week 1, creating few chances as they integrated six new players into their starting XI. A more serious concern than the chemistry has to be that there just aren’t enough difference makers on the pitch in Philly – guys that scare teams. Columbus are basically the antithesis of the Union. They had minimal turnover from 2015 to 2016, they have difference makers and flair all over the pitch, and they’ll be at home thirsty for blood after losing a tough season opener in Portland. Even at (-200), the Crew are an absolute no brainer this week.

Houston v. FC Dallas

FC Dallas have been pulling Houston’s pants down for about two years now. But one of the major forces behind all of those pants-ings was forward Fabian Castillo, who is questionable at best going into Saturday. FC Dallas are still intriguing as they pay out at (+160) for the win and have dominated in Houston of late. This one is probably a stay away.

San Jose v. Portland

San Jose have a nice new stadium but Portland have been on fire for quite some time now. This one feels like the Rapids v. Galaxy game this week. Anytime you get good odds on a good team playing a bad team, you have to consider it. When I see the champs at (+185) playing against a shabby San Jose side, I am intrigued.

***Official Week 2 Picks***

  • $100 on LAG to win at +135
  • $250 on CLB to win at -200
  • $100 on PTFC to win at +185

 

MLS in Vegas: Week 1

mls in veg 2After a brutal 2015, Soccer Therapy is back for more in 2016. If you don’t know the rules, here is a quick refresher: I bet on the weekly money-lines. I can bet on wins and draws, as many or as few as I want in a given week of MLS action, with the only limitation being my $1,000 weekly budget. I get the lines from the Bovada Online Sportsbook each week. Even if I build up some winnings, I cannot bet more than $1,000 in a given week. Note that this is just a game: I like to make these playful wagers and I enjoy keeping track of the numbers, but I am not placing actual bets.

Last year I found myself placing $300 and $400 bets after a winning stretch, only to lose those bets and dig my hole bigger than it ever was in the first place. In 2016, I’ll try to learn from those mistakes and use caution when I find myself wanting to wager $300+. In case you didn’t see last season’s totals in the UGLY section of my The Good, Bad & Ugly from MLS in 2015 post, I’ve got them right here for you:

2015 SEASON
Picking Winners: 22/47 (47%)
Picking Draws: 2/8
Total Earnings: -$1,406 (24/55)

What can I say? It was a trying year, and that is precisely why I do the MLS in Vegas series for fun rather than for money. Anyway, onward we go, through the bloodshed and into 2016. This series is all about weekly wagers, but before I get into the week 1 post, have a look at the MLS Cup odds going into the season:Picture1I’ve seen FC Dallas at 10/1 in addition to the 12/1 you see in this graphic (from VegasInsider.com). Either of those is good value as the Hoops appear to be the consensus favorites in the west. NYRB, Columbus and Toronto are getting some love in the east, but you won’t get great odds with NYRB or Columbus and, just being honest, TFC aren’t winning MLS Cup. New England and Orlando might be worth putting a $20 bill on. It’s always fun to look at these numbers but they rarely mean much in the end. And now, it’s onto my week 1 predictions and wagers.

The first week of action should be approached with great caution. Sure, there may be a few good values out there, but this is a marathon, not a sprint, and there’s nothing wrong with staying on the sidelines in week 1. After all, every offseason is filled with player movement and even the most stable clubs deal with significant turnover on an annual basis.

NYRB v. Toronto – March 6th, 1:30 ET

New York are one of the bigger week 1 favorites at -$140 to win at home. Toronto may be decent value at +$335 to win, but this one looks like a stay away to me.

SJ v. Colorado – March 6th, 3:00 ET

I think there is a pretty good chance this one finishes 1-1 or, even more likely, 0-0. At +$230 for the draw, it’s worth considering a small wager.

FC Dallas v. Philadelphia – March 6th, 3:00 ET

You won’t find a bigger favorite in week 1 than FC Dallas. The Hoops are among the 2016 favorites to win the Shield, USOC and MLS Cup while The Union are coming off an ugly 2015 that has them introducing quite a few new parts to start 2016. At -$170 to win, FC Dallas are solid value in week 1 as this line could have been over $200 if the clubs were meeting any later in the season.

Seattle v. SKC – March 6th, 7:00 ET

Seattle are intriguing at -$110 to beat SKC at CenturyLink tonight. They’ve had a couple of competitive matches against Club America in CCL action over the last week and that could amount to a significant advantage in week 1. SKC can be dangerous, though, and over the years they’ve shown they can win in the Pacific Northwest. Approach with caution.

LA Galaxy v. DC United – March 6th, 10:00 ET

LA are actually the biggest money-line favorites in week 1 at -$210 to beat DC United at the StubHub Center. This is a mystery to me and I actually see more value in DCU at +$500 to win. I’d recommend staying away or maybe a small wager on DC to pull the upset.

***Official Week 1 Picks***

  • $50 SJvCOL to draw at +230
  • $250 on FCD to win at -170
  • $110 on SEA to win at -110

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly from MLS in 2015

It’s a little overdue, what with the 2016 season days away from kicking off. But I just have to get something up here for the 2015 season. Last year I posted the inaugural The Good, Bad and the Ugly from MLS piece in October, recapping the 2014 regular season before a champion had even been crowned. This year will be a little bit different, but I’d like to keep the yearly post alive. With that being said, below is my far-too-late 2015 MLS review.

Picture5THE GOOD

Montreal’s CCL Run
Montreal took MLS fans for an absolute joy ride through the CONCACAF Champions League knockout stages in the spring of 2015. After making it through the group stage, few of us gave the Impact any chance in their 2-leg quarterfinal matchup vs. Liga MX side Pachuca. And few of us will soon forget the incredible closing moments of that tie, when rookie Cameron Porter scored at the death to send his club through to the semis. How could anyone ever forget that face?

030315-Soccer-Montreal-Cameron-Porter-pi-ssm.vresize.1200.675.high.1

Porter’s celebration after his 94′ goal put Montreal through to the CCL semis

The run was equal parts entertaining and unfathomable, and after defeating Costa Rican side Alajuelense in the semifinals, it came up just short in the final against Liga MX giants Club America.

Sebastian Giovinco
We thought he’d do well, maybe even dominate, but Sebastian Giovinco surpassed all expectations in his first MLS campaign. The 2015 MVP tore through the league scoring 22 goals and collecting 16 assists, becoming the first player in league history to top those two categories in the same season. Giovinco toyed with MLS in 2015, and I can’t wait to see what he does in 2016.

sebastian-giovinco-toronto-fc-mls-20150718_1x0uy33oblqak1krb0xk3yfl4a

Sebas knocked it out of the park in his first MLS campaign

The Other Gio
While the Italian Gio set the league on fire and spurred a hapless club on to their first ever postseason appearance, a Mexican Gio made some waves of his own. Giovani dos Santos, the El Tri star with clubs like Barca, Tottenham and Villareal on his resume, made the mid-season transfer to MLS powerhouse LA Galaxy. Gio had some nice moments for LA, but the Galaxy were never up to the task as a whole in 2015. I am recognizing this in 2015’s “GOOD” section because the acquisition of a young, hugely popular and talented Mexican represents a new kind of coup. If MLS can continue signing El Tri stars, it will elevate the level of play, but more importantly, it will work wonders in terms of boosting the league’s profile.

giovani-dos-santos-la-galaxy_3335628

Giovani was an absolute hit with the fans, but couldn’t make the difference for LA in 2016

TV Exposure & Extensive Coverage – The 2015 season is ancient history by now, but it may be looked back upon as a major turning point in terms of when the league was finally able to get some television exposure. Thanks to a new deal, the league featured primetime, nationally televised matches all season long on Univision Deportes/UniMas (34 matches), ESPN (34 matches) and FoxSports1 (34 matches). It may seem like small potatoes compared with the big boys (NFL,NBA, MLB etc.) of American sports, but this is relatively significant exposure for pro soccer in this country. A weekly MLS broadcast on the likes of FoxSports and ESPN is a breath of fresh air for me. MLS also managed to get some nice exposure across the pond, signing 4-year deals with Sky Sports and Eurosport, among other international broadcast agreements. Coverage of American soccer has grown exponentially in recent years. The 2015 US Open Cup final was nationally broadcast on ESPN2 – it was only a few years ago that you couldn’t even find the tournament on ESPN’s website. Lower leagues like the USL and NASL have done a superb job of live streaming matches, mostly in high def and mostly with sufferable commentary. Whether online or on TV, soccer has become much easier to consume.

Expansion – NYCFC and Orlando each were successful in their inaugural campaigns. Both clubs had encouraging moments on the pitch and neither were ever expansion pushovers. Both clubs were buoyed by outstanding fan support and were entertaining to follow throughout 2015 for that reason. A lot of MLS folks have had their doubts about venturing back into Florida after fallouts in Tampa and Miami, but Orlando City’s attendance figures (32,847/game) in year one suggest the Lions are here to stay. As for NYCFC, well, I’ll get back to them in the “UGLY” section.


THE BAD

Major League Soccer has made an obvious effort to sign stars from the US national team. Deuce in Seattle, Bradley and Altidore in Toronto, Mix in New York, Brek Shea in Orlando, and so on. Despite this, the league still refuses to recognize all official FIFA dates throughout each season, scheduling matches that put its clubs in compromised personnel situations. MLS also draws a significant amount of its talent from CONCACAF nations like Honduras and Jamaica. You will never see this blog arguing for an American soccer calendar that aligns with Europe’s. The weather simply does not allow for reasonable or even playable soccer in half of the league’s markets from December to February. Having said that, the league could work harder to accommodate its internationals by honoring all of FIFA’s international dates. More double game weeks would be fine, but I hate watching my club play when our best player is off in Colombia.


THE UGLY

MLS in Vegas – After getting crushed to the tune of minus $747 during my last week of action (Matchday 28), it’s safe to say the 2015 MLS in Vegas campaign has earned its place in the “UGLY” section. Gambling can be cruel, especially in sports. Patience, discipline and structure is the recipe for success, but there’s still that whole thing about “that’s why they play the games.” The final numbers for 2015 are below. Better luck next year, SoccerTherapy.

2015 SEASON
Picking Winners: 22/47 (47%)
Picking Draws: 2/8
Total Earnings: ($1,406)

Kreis & NYCFC The expansion club got itself the ideal manager in Jason Kreis, the architect behind Real Salt Lake’s fantastic success from 2008-2013. Out in Utah, Kreis took RSL took the brink of a CCL title, won MLS Cup (2009) and enjoyed a handful of impressive playoff runs. And even though Jason Kreis didn’t turn RSL into an MLS power over night, it seems that’s what was expected of him in New York.

Kreis, the former head man at RSL and NYCFC, is now an assistant with the USMNT

NYCFC used all three designated player slots on old, overpriced stars from abroad. David Villa performed well and was a positive force for the club in their expansion season. But to add pieces like Pirlo and Lampard, expensive and slow guys in a league full of young, fast, strong and cheap guys, just doesn’t make sense to me. Management not only burned the club’s resources in signing a pair of old slow guys, they also placed Kreis in a position where he had to play these new acquisitions, forcing him to put square pegs in a round hole each time he put out a starting XI. Then, when he isn’t successful enough (not sure what management expected in year one on the pitch), they fire him! Because he couldn’t take their horribly designed roster to the playoffs!! They fired the guy who has proven he can build a winner in this league!!! Because he didn’t build a winner overnight with that sh*tty roster!!!!

Needless to say, NYCFC replaced Kreis with Patrick Vieira, a man with basically no coaching experience. Sure, the former French international was a fine player, but he has minimal knowledge of all the whacky quirks that make MLS different from other leagues around the world.

That’s it for the 2015 recap. I’m sure I overlooked quite a bit of good stuff. Look out for an MLS in Vegas post this weekend. Happy Soccering in 2016!

2001

The MLS Timeline Series (and SoccerTherapy.net for that matter) is back! Take a look at the 2001 tile and write up. 2002 is in the works and it’s going to be crazy. Keep an eye out for a belated-to-the-point-of-being-worthless post, MLS: Good, Bad & the Ugly from 2015

2001 tryRegular Season

This season is likely most remembered for the fact that it was shortened due to the events of 9/11. Of the 12 teams, four played 27 matches while the other eight played 26 (teams were scheduled to play 32 matches). As a result, only two teams cracked the 50 point mark – Chicago and Miami finished tied atop the table with 53 points apiece. More about that coming up.

2001 represented the last year that a Florida club competed in MLS play, and both Tampa and Miami went out in historic fashion. Miami finished with 53 points to take the Shield while Tampa struggled to just 14 points in 27 matches. Miami went out on top, but Tampa’s 14 points still holds as the fewest an MLS club has collected in one season.

The Shield Race
Due to the 9/11 tragedy, this race didn’t play out in full, but in the end, they had to give the trophy to someone. Miami played attractive and entertaining soccer en route to collecting 53 points in their Swan Song season (can you say that about clubs or just players?). They took the Shield from Chicago on a tiebreaker; Miami defeated the Fire in two regular season meetings and played 26 games compared with Chicago’s 27, so they were deserving winners of the regular season hardware. But for Chicago to achieve the high point total in MLS for the second straight year and miss out on the Shield due to a tiebreaker yet again? That had to be pure devastation for their supporters.

All Star Game

This is the way All-Star games were meant to be played: the best players in the league going head-to-head, showing mutual respect and playing no defense whatsoever. The game took place in San Jose and hometown youngster Landon Donovan put on a show for his supporters, scoring a hat trick in the opening 19 minutes of the match and taking MVP honors.

These are highlights you have to see to believe: the defending is nonexistent, and reminiscent of the high-flying, outrageously entertaining NBA All Star Game that I’ve loved since I was a boy. After falling behind early, the East found their way back into the contest and even took a 6-5 lead on the strength of a brace from USMNT legend Brian McBride. Landon wasn’t done just yet, though, as he put his fourth past the ‘keeper in the 92nd minute to earn his side the draw, the first in MLS ASG history.

Donovan’s standout performance in this midseason showdown was a sign of things to come, not only for this 2001 season, but over the next decade as he would go on to became the greatest player in league history.

US Open Cup

A handful of established MLS clubs fought for the Cup in 2001, with the Galaxy and up and coming New England Revolution joining previous winners DC United and Chicago Fire in the semifinals. On Oct. 27th, LA Galaxy defeated New England 2-1 in dramatic fashion to take their first ever US Open Cup title.

It was a pretty legendary run for the SoCal side. In the quarters they took down in-state rival San Jose after an epic 10-9 penalty shootout. In the semis they defeated Chicago 1-0 on a 94th minute goal from Alexi Lalas. Then in the final it was Danny Califf who scored the winner in the 92nd minute to break the deadlock.

MLS Cup Playoffs

The first round (quarterfinals) was all chalk other than the 4-seed vs. 5-seed matchup, where San Jose made short work of the  fourth seeded Columbus Crew. But the second round (semis) must have been an absolute joy for MLS fans at the time. Regular season juggernaut Chicago played USOC winners LA Galaxy in what looked to be a tight three game series. LA were always in control, though, as they drew Chicago in the first matchup and went on to win the next two. The other semifinal looks pretty epic on the score sheet. I’ll just put it here for you, but, suffice it to say, it went down to the wire:

Picture11MLS Cup Final: San Jose 2 – 1 LAG

After losing MLS Cup in 1996 and 1999, the Galaxy were determined to take home the precious hardware for the first time. They showed as much, taking a 1-0 lead in the 21st minute. But 2001 was the year of Landon Donovan, and the budding star bagged the equalizer just before halftime. The game went into overtime at 1-1, where legend Dwayne De Rosario scored what has to be the greatest cup winner in league history.

With their third loss in the cup final after just six years of league play, LA were quickly becoming the bridesmaids of MLS. But as you will see throughout this series, the Galaxy finally figured out how to win the big one, and proceeded on their way to becoming the Evil Empire of American soccer.

Awards

Most Valuable Player: Alex Pineda Chacón – Miami Fusion
Goalkeeper of the Year: Tim Howard – MetroStars
Defender of the Year: Jeff Agoos – San Jose Earthquakes
Goal of the Year: Clint Mathis – MetroStars vs. Dallas Burn – April 28, 2001 (Watch here)
Coach of the Year: Frank Yallop – San Jose Earthquakes

More Set-Piece Genius from Papi

One of my Radar posts back in March featured a short paragraph titled Papi’s Set Pieces. Obviously the focus was on the second year head man at FC Dallas, Oscar Pareja, and his brilliant set piece tactics early in the 2015 season. I’ve taken that paragraph and re-posted it below. Below that, you’ll find a new paragraph and video featuring another creative play Oscar drew up during the MLS Cup 2015 Playoffs.


Papi’s Set Pieces

Pareja also deserves attention for drawing up a clever set piece in three consecutive matches to start the season. Each one is unique, taking full advantage of Dallas’ legitimate dead ball threats: Mauro Diaz’ right foot and Michel’s left foot. Video links and a brief description of each play are listed below:

Week 1: FCD v. San Jose: A sneaky, clever design as everyone in the building thought Diaz would try and curve it over the wall and under the cross bar. Perez should have scored.

Week 2: FCD v. SKC: I thought Michel would whip one directly into the box, but he caught SKC off guard by quickly tapping it to Mauro Diaz, who tapped it right back to Michel in a more advanced position. Just like the chance in week 1, this was quite simple, but the play utilized the threat of Diaz and Michel to trick the defense and create a quality scoring chance.

Week 3 in Philly: The Union were surely concerned about Michel putting a dangerous ball into the box on this one, but then he tricked them, chipping to an open Tesho Akindele. This one put FCD in a fantastic attacking position again. Defenses across MLS are showing FCD respect inside the 18 yard box, giving us room to work the edges in dangerous set piece situations. Not the best video, but you get the idea.


All of that was back in March, and FC Dallas never amounted to a very dangerous set-piece club in 2015. It’s November now and the Hoops just polished off Seattle in the Western Conference semifinals. During the first leg of that series, in the 45th minute, Oscar Pareja’s club ran another clever and gashing play off a dangerous dead ball situation. Unfortunately, Dallas came up empty again, letting another of Oscar’s brilliant set-piece designs go to waste.

Here’s the link: watch as Mauro sends the D one way, gets the ball back, and places a beautiful thru ball at Watson’s feet.

It All Starts Up Front

***Every now and then, we like to mix it up here on Soccer Therapy. The post below is this blog’s first about Futbol NorteAmericano. MLS/Soccer posts are in the works, but a little variety goes a long way.***

Jimmy-Johnson2I know, it’s unhealthy for Cowboys fans to dwell on their glorious past, but it’s also an eye-opening educational experience. Go back to the early 90s when Dallas’ offensive line was manhandling the NFL en route to winning three Super Bowls in four years. The ’93 Super Bowl Champions were anchored by Pro Bowlers at offensive tackle (Erik Williams), guard (Nate Newton), and center (Mark Stepnoski). Shortly after the 1993 championship campaign, Dallas used their 2nd round pick in the 1994 NFL Draft on offensive guard Larry Allen, adding one of the finest players in league history to an already dominant unit. Allen wasted no time getting on the field, starting ten games as a rookie. In just his second year, he was one of a record four Cowboys O-linemen voted into the Pro Bowl (the others were Ray Donaldson, Nate Newton, and Mark Tuinei). The dominant foursome helped the ‘Boys reach Super Bowl XXX, where Dallas won their third title in four years and fifth overall. That win over Pittsburgh in the desert cemented those early 90s Cowboys as one of the greatest dynasties in league history. Dallas was led by the sexy trio of Michael Irvin, Emmit Smith and Troy Aikman, countless studs on the defensive side and a dream-team coaching staff. It’s no wonder then that many folks may have thought their early 90s dominance was a team effort, a product of one of the greatest rosters ever assembled. It’s true the ‘Boys were stacked with Hall of Famers, but it’s also true that the O-line was among the greatest of all time, and that the unit had an extraordinary impact on the team’s ability to win.

The proof is in the film. In fact, the NFL Network series, “A Football Life,” dedicated an entire episode to the Dallas fronts of the early 90s: “A Football Life: The Great Wall of Dallas – The Perfect Unit.” There is also proof in the form of Emmit Smith, statistically one of the most dominant backs in league history. Any NFL fan with a pair of eyes knows that Emmit doesn’t make the top 10 list of most gifted backs to play in the league. He was a leader, tough as nails, had great vision, and superior lateral movement. The finest RBs to ever suit up in the NFL? That list consists of guys like Gayle Sayers, Eric Dickerson, OJ Simpson, Barry Sanders and Adrian Peterson. Yet Emmit excelled in Dallas, winning three Super Bowls and setting the NFL mark for career rushing yards, undoubtedly one of the most coveted records in all of sports. During the early 90s, the Great Wall of Dallas paved the way for Emmit’s four league rushing titles in just five years. While it was a run first league back then, that last one is breathtaking statistic. I hate to take anything away from Emmit, he was a Hall of Fame back and an even better person, but it should be said that history would have played out differently had be not been surrounded with so much talent. It’s true that most successful players in the NFL do not succeed on their own – they need all stars around them to become all stars themselves. But this truth does not hold at the running back position, where greats like Barry Sanders and Earl Campbell produced legendary careers with weak supporting casts. I love Emmit, but his outrageous success in the NFL serves as proof that the ‘Boys O-line from the 90s was extraordinary.

Earl-Oilers-1920Moving along now into the darker, latter half of the 90s and early 2000s. Jerry Jones is desperate to recapture the success and ensuing glory of his recent dynasty. Rather than building a team from the inside out, as all successful NFL lifers know to do, Jerry made one frivolous high-profile move after another. Perhaps the most infamous of Jerry’s personnel blunders was the Joey Galloway trade from February of 2000. Dallas gave Seattle their first round picks from 2000 and 2001 in exchange for a wide receiver that would produce just 12 touchdowns in 48 games with the team. There was also the failed trade for Roy Williams that cost the team a first, third and sixth round draft pick.

6_3247664All of this changed, though, when Jerry realized he was the source of his beloved team’s problems. In January 2003, Jerry briefly swallowed his pride in an effort to hire one of the greatest coaches in American sports history, Bill Parcells. Parcells changed everything, building his team through the draft and eventually compiling one of the most talented rosters in the NFL before leaving in ’06. The “Tuna” crushed it in the draft during his time in Big D, bringing in guys like Jason Witten (3rd round), DeMarcus Ware (1st round), and some great late round values like Jay Ratliff, Jason Hatcher and Chris Canty. Oh yeah, he also signed a fella named Tony Romo as an undrafted free agent. Wade Phillips was the main benefactor of Parcell’s four year talent acquisition project in Dallas. He took a strong 2007 Cowboys roster, one that a genius architect built from scratch in just four years, to a 13 win season, a division title, and a narrow divisional round playoff loss to the eventual Super Bowl champs. Phillips did some nice things in ’07 and ’08, but it only took him until 2010, when he was fired mid-season, to run that Dallas iteration into the ground.

136-bill-parcells-1024But really, this post isn’t about Phillips, Parcells or even the Cowboys. It’s about building a team from the inside out, and knowing that sustainable success in the NFL starts up front. Pete Carroll knew this when he took over as head coach of the Seahawks in 2010, and he showed as much when he used his first pick on the job to draft a franchise tackle, Russell Okung (6th overall out of Okie St). During the 2011 NFL Draft, just his second in Seattle, Carroll spent his first and second rounders on an offensive tackle and a guard. Carroll invested his most valuable picks in his O-line during his first two years back in the league, and it helped lay the foundation for Seattle’s Super Bowl run in 2014. It’s clear that Pete knew exactly what was needed from a personnel standpoint to succeed in the NFL. I think Bill Parcells also knew this, too. Despite bringing so much talent to Big D in such a short period of time, Parcells failed to make a lasting impact to the offensive line. He spent a high second rounder on Al Johnson (C, Wisconsin) in 2003 and valuable 2nd and 3rd round picks on a tackle and a guard in 2004 (Jacob Rogers, USC and Stephen Peterman, LSU). Not one of these three lasted long with Dallas, and all ended up as draft busts. But the pattern of drafting shows that Parcells knew what he was doing, that if he could make one side of his O-line dominant, everything else would fall into place. Many fans recognize that the O-line makes all the difference on offense. A good, reliable set of hogs up front makes everyone a better player, the QB, the backs, and the pass catchers. But few fans of the game recognize how much a quality O-line aids the defense. When you can run the ball, dictate the pace of the game by controlling the clock, and consistently convert in high pressure, short yardage situations, both the offense and defense benefit.

dallas-cowboys-quarterback-tony-romo-9-runs-from-new-orleans-saints-defensive-tackle-tom-johnson1Never has this truth been more evident than during the Tony Romo era in Dallas. For about half a decade, Romo played lights out football, carrying an awful defense and an even worse O-line to a respectable record and even a few playoff appearances (when he was healthy that is, he was frequently injured because he was running for his life until 2011). But Dallas was never a contender – they had no running game, were hopeless in short yardage situations, and because they never controlled the clock, the defense was gassed and guaranteed to choke come crunch time. Fast forward to 2014, when the Cowboys sported a balanced attack for the first time in Romo’s career. Romo led the ‘Boys to a 12-4 record and had the team playing their best football since the turn of the century. And because DeMarco Murray and the O-line insured we almost always won the time-of-possession battle, our average defensive players punched above their weight for most of the season. Sure, Dallas lost to the Packers in the divisional round of the playoffs, but that’s beside the point. Why were the Cowboys playing their best, most physical football since the 90s? It’s because after almost 20 years, Jerry Jones finally figured out what Jimmy Johnson, Bill Parcells and Pete Carroll have known from the beginning: it all starts up front. In 2011, Jerry changed course and used his first round selection on Tyrone Smith (Offensive Tackle, USC). Two years later he spent another first rounder on an O-lineman, drafting center Travis Frederick out of Wisconsin. In 2014, Jerry again invested in the most important unit on a football team, taking versatile lineman Zack Martin with the 16th pick out of Notre Dame. All three picks have been hits, and since the start of the 2014 season, Dallas’ O-line has been one of the best units in the NFL.

jerry-jones5

It took me 16 years, but I fangered it out!

To me, it’s amazing how many teams we’ve seen succeed by building through the draft and from the inside out, yet Jerry Jones needed 16 years to learn the lesson for himself. Once he began investing in the O-line in 2011, Dallas’ fortunes changed for the better. It’s a discouraging thought for fans and management alike: building a team inside out from scratch, knowing it’ll take a minimum three years to draft and develop what’s needed to become a winner. It happens quickly, though, and every year a shoddy team spends their resources to acquire talent outside the trenches is a wasted year. The Cowboys wasted the late 90s and first decade of the 2000s doing exactly that, but it seems like just yesterday Dallas selected Tyrone Smith in the draft, and now the club has a foundation they can continue to build on for a long time.

MLS in Vegas: Week 28

Okay, after a month off, it’s time to play some catch up. Below is a look at the last two weeks of wagers for the series, weeks 22 and 23 of league play.

WEEK 22 REVIEW
LOSS
$100 on NYC = ($100)
LOSS
$50 on COLvLA draw = ($50)
LOSS
$50 on COL to win = ($50)
LOSS $200 on SKC to win = ($200)
Weekly Total = ($400)

Picture2WEEK 23 REVIEW
LOSS $200 on ORL to win = ($200)
HIT!
$300 on POR to win at -$150 = $200
Weekly Total = $0

NEW 2015 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 21/43
Picking Draws: 2/8
Total Earnings: ($659)

Now a different kind of catch up is in order. After getting the season deficit under $300 in early August, some irresponsible picking has me back at -$659 on the year. Have a look at some of the most intriguing lines here in week 28, there may be some value to be had.

NYRB v. Chicago – September 11th, 7:00 ET

Not sure how many members of the Red Bull roster are New York natives, or even American to begin with. But any time a New York sports club has a home contest on a day like 9/11, you have to think they’ll play inspired ball and have an amazing crowd behind them.

New York are also a superior club, with a far stronger central midfield and more options in front of goal. Even though Chicago took down NYRB by a score of 3-2 at Toyota Park last month, I still think NYRB crushes tonight, even if only to the tune of 2-0 or 3-1. They aren’t great value at -$200 to win, but nothing gets me randy like a Friday night wager!

Dallas v. NYCFC – September 12th, 8:30 ET

Dallas are playing well and on a two match winning streak. The club should also be boosted by the return of three of their top scorers (Perez, Castillo and Akindele). The Hoops are pretty devastating at home, so I like Dallas at -$145 to win quite a bit this weekend.

LA v. Montreal – September 12th, 10:30 ET

You’ll have to wager a pretty penny to make anything off LA at home this weekend. At -$240 to win, the Galaxy are massive favorites on Saturday night. But I’m a but surprised the bookies aren’t making the odds even steeper by putting LA in the -$300 to -$350 range. Montreal could score two or three goals in this one, but I’d be fairly shocked if they scored four or more, and I’m definitely willing to bet that LA can bag four against the Impact at the StubHub center.

Orlando v. SKC – September 13th, 7:00 ET

Both of these teams are in an awful run of form of late, but I think that has turned SKC into a solid value here. Vermes’ boys are at +$160 to win the match thanks to their four match winless streak, but I think they’re at least a notch or two above the expansion Lions. Orlando can play well at home, but their expansion roster has been devastated by injuries throughout the year and stalwart Kaka could even miss the match as he is currently listed day to day.

***Official Week 28 Picks***

  • $300 on NYRB to win at -200
  • $150 on DAL to win at -145
  • $450 on LA to win at -240
  • $100 on SKC to win at +160

MLS in Vegas: Week 22

For the first time this season I am building some momentum and making real progress. Below this post, you’ll find my week 21 review and all the statistics on the season in the MLS in Vegas Housekeeping post. I’ve gone 2-0 in each of the last two weeks and seen positive earnings in four of the last five weeks of action. The dark days of the $1,100 deficit are behind us for now, and if I hadn’t been slaughtered so badly in weeks 11 and 12 (minus $740 on seven picks during the stretch) this series could very well be in the green. As far as week 22 goes, I don’t see much value at all. I’ve written about some intriguing match ups below, but like most weeks in Major League Soccer, there are no “sure bets” in this round, and no outcome should come as a surprise to the well-informed fan.

NYCFC v. Montreal – August 1st, 2:00 ET

This match began prior to this post making it up on the site, so I tweeted this out 45 minutes prior to first kick for good measure:

Picture1There you have it. I swear NYCFC were closer to even odds earlier in the week, something like -$103 or -$104 for the win, but I didn’t make the call until 45 minutes prior to First Kick, and apparently, that’s the price I pay. In terms of analysis and gambling justification, I don’t have much and am willing admit this is a shaky bet. But every analyst on MLS’ site picked NYC, who are a good side at home and facing a Montreal team that is awful on the road. Pirlo is in the lineup and he seemed to spark the club on his debut. Like many bad bets I make, I couldn’t resist on this one, but I didn’t want to pass on NYCFC at home after they busted out for five goals a week ago.

SKC v. Houston – August 1st, 8:30 ET

SKC are the only heavy money line favorites in week 22 at -$139 to beat the Dynamo at Sporting Park. Sporting are a dangerous and well coached side and are one of the most consistent teams in MLS despite last week’s loss in Utah. Despite Houston’s positive 3-0 win at home over the Galaxy last week, I think there is a massive gap in class between these two teams. Add in the massive home field advantage at Sporting Park and SKC at -$139 to win look like the surest bet of the weekend.

However, it is important to remember that these clubs have played each other quite a bit over the last few years. Dating back to the 2011 season, they’ve met 11 times in regular season play, 5 times in postseason play, and twice in USOC play (during 2011 qualification play and two weeks ago in the 2015 quarters). That is a lot of history between these two clubs, making the outcome of this one a bit tougher to pick.

Colorado v. LA Galaxy – August 1st, 9:00 ET

This game is complicated. I need to list off a handful of thoughts before I can begin predicting an outcome. I am also considering taking a unique but risky approach with how I wager on this one, more on that later though. For now, a list of thoughts:

PERSONNEL NOTES:
-Drew Moor (Defender, COL), Omar Gonzalez (Defender, LAG), and Juninho (Midfielder, LAG) played 45 minutes in Wednesday’s All Star Game against Spurs. Colorado’s Sam Cronin (Midfielder) put in a 32 minute shift.

-LA are dealing with a host of injury concerns to some key players:

Picture1-LA will also be without the services of goalkeeper Jaime Penedo (no longer with the team), the Panamanian International who helped the club win MLS Cup a year ago.

-The Galaxy do receive a boost as Omar Gonzalez, Gyasi Zardes, and Alan Gordon, having returned from national team duty where they helped the US to a 4th place finish in the Gold Cup, are available for selection.

-It’s also possible that LA’s newest high profile acquisition, Mexican International Giovanni Dos Santos, could be available for selection.

CLUB NOTES:
-The Rapids, in terms of PPG, were easily the worst team in MLS prior to taking the last nine points on offer with a three match win streak. The streak hasn’t been terribly convincing: they did take down VAN 2-1 in Colorado, but their wins against RSL and Seattle were suspect, or certainly not convincing.

-LA have yet to win a match on the road this season in MLS. In eleven matches away from the StubHub Center they’ve lost six and drawn five.

 -The two trends listed above suggest Colorado might be good value at +$148 for the win, but Bruce Arena has a way of elevating his side’s play once the stretch run hits. Expect more consistency and quality from the Galaxy over the final three months of the season.

To me, this game boils down to the health and availability of Robbie Keane. If the talisman is healthy and in the XI then LA could be poised to pick up their first road win of the season. As I said above, I am considering taking a unique but potentially costly approach in terms of betting on this match. Colorado are +$148, LA are +$172, and draws always pay better than 2-1. This means if you can narrow the outcome down to two of three possible results, you will be making money. I am very tempted to wager on the draw and a Rapids victory. If I were to to wager $100 on each of those outcomes, I net $48 in the event of a Rapids win and $123 in the event of a draw. As tempting as it is, raising the stakes in a bet against the Galaxy is probably a bad idea.

Chicago v. Dallas – August 2nd, 7:00 ET

Dallas are on a five match win streak and Chicago are one of the worst clubs in MLS. But FC Dallas have been shaky on their travels and poor in this matchup for the last three years. The money lines reflect the fact that Dallas(+$166), while a far better MLS side than Chicago(+$150), are not even close to favorites in this one. A draw may be worth a look here, but I would say take the favorable odds and bet on Big D or leave this one alone. Dallas is in top form right now and will be aided by the return of JeVaugn Watson, Blas Perez and Moises Hernandez from Gold Cup Duty. But unlike other hot streaks FC Dallas have found themselves on over the last three seasons, this one has a much more sustainable feel to it. Dallas’ recent run of results can be attributed to good health, no suspensions and opportunistic soccer. However, the club is playing better thanks to the emergence of the midfield duo Victor Ulloa and Kellyn Acosta – these two players are helping the D, helping the offense, and have provided FCD with the type of midfield that could really chase some silverware in 2015. So if you don’t want to bet on Dallas, that makes plenty of sense, but I don’t think this is the same Hoops team we saw from 2011 – 2014, so I wouldn’t bet against them.

***Official Week 22 Picks***

  • $100 on NYCFC to win at -120
  • $50 on COLvLA to draw at +223
  • $50 on COL to win at +148
  • $200 on SKC to win at -139

MLS in Vegas: Housekeeping

We are 21 weeks into the 2015 MLS season and I’ve participated n 13 weeks of action in my MLSinVegas series. Below are the fully updated numbers along with some other statistics.

WEEK 21 REVIEW
HIT!
$100 on DCU at +$109 = $109
HIT! $100 on VAN at -$149 = $67
Weekly Total = 109 + 67 = $176

NEW 2015 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 20/39
Picking Draws: 2/7
   Overall: 48%   
Total Earnings: ($259)

Here is a week by week breakdown of my season so far. It was a rough and rock start, but things are starting to smooth out – let’s just hope I can keep my head out of my ass for the next 13 weeks like I have for these last seven!

Picture3Below is a breakdown of how I’ve picked each club so far this season. Whether I picked a team to win, lose, or draw, if I was right, I’ve marked it as a Hit on this chart, and if I was wrong when picking a certain club, I’ve marked it as a Miss. Through 13 weeks of the series, I’ve wagered on 46 matches, making for a total of 92 hits and misses so far. Notice that, in the parity ridden Eastern Conference, I am really struggling to accurately pick outcomes with so much inconsistent play. Picture1As the first chart shows, I’ve made money in five of the last six weeks I played, so hopefully we can keep the momentum going forward! Look for the MLS in Vegas: Week 22 post on Friday afternoon, I don’t see too many values out there, but SKC at home versus the Houston Dynamo has me feeling opportunistic.