MLS in Vegas: Week 2

mls in veg 2Week 1 was interesting. I put my eggs in the right basket when I bet $250 on FC Dallas, who cruised to a 2-0 win. But Colorado couldn’t manage the draw in San Jose and Seattle blew a match they should have won 1-0 in front of 40,000 fans. Let’s see how the wagers turned out:

WEEK 1 REVIEW
LOSS $50 on SJvCOL to draw = ($50)
HIT!
$250 on FCD to win at -$170 = $147
LOSS
$110 on SEA to win = ($110)
Weekly Total($13)

NEW 2016 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 1/2
Picking Draws: 0/1
Total Earnings: ($13)

So it could be worse, but I am obviously disappointed about the $110 wasted on Seattle – silly bets like that are the difference between good and bad weeks. Looking at week 2, at first glance, there are no surefire bets. This is likely because most of the better teams in this week’s matchups are playing on the road, and of course, it’s still very early in the year. Either way, I can’t help myself and there are a few decent values out there.

SATURDAY

  • 3:00 ET – NE (-175) vs. DCU (+425), Draw (+305)
  • 4:00 ET – MTL (+145) vs. NYRB (+170), Draw (+245)
  • 4:00 ET – RSL (+115) vs. SEA (+230), Draw (+230)
  • 7:00 ET – COL (+185) vs. LAG (+135), Draw (+240)
  • 7:30 ET – CLB (-200) vs. PHI (+475), Draw (+330)
  • 8:30 ET – SKC (+115) vs. VAN (+235), Draw (+230)
  • 8:30 ET – HOU (+165) vs. FCD (+160), Draw (+225)

SUNDAY

  • 4:00 ET – NYC (+135) vs. TOR (+170), Draw (+265)
  • 6:00 ET – SJ (+140) vs. POR (+185), Draw (+225)

Real Salt Lake v. Seattle

I am not so convinced that RSL are a good bet in this one, but I think a Seattle win combined with the draw might offer good value. Both wagers pay out at better than 2-1, and theoretically, there is a 67% chance one of those outcomes occurs (especially given that Seattle are the stronger side). Get your MLS match preview, including injury and disciplinary reports right here.

Colorado v. Los Angeles

I know LA are on the road, and the Rapids will be buoyed by a strong crowd for their home opener, but to get the Galaxy at +135 against a shabby side like the Rapids seems like a fine opportunity. Whether LA blows them out or breaks their hearts in stoppage time, I just don’t see a way for the Rapids tonight.

Columbus v. Philadelphia

There will be a time this season where I don’t bet against Philly every week, but that time is not now. The Union looked inept against FC Dallas in week 1, creating few chances as they integrated six new players into their starting XI. A more serious concern than the chemistry has to be that there just aren’t enough difference makers on the pitch in Philly – guys that scare teams. Columbus are basically the antithesis of the Union. They had minimal turnover from 2015 to 2016, they have difference makers and flair all over the pitch, and they’ll be at home thirsty for blood after losing a tough season opener in Portland. Even at (-200), the Crew are an absolute no brainer this week.

Houston v. FC Dallas

FC Dallas have been pulling Houston’s pants down for about two years now. But one of the major forces behind all of those pants-ings was forward Fabian Castillo, who is questionable at best going into Saturday. FC Dallas are still intriguing as they pay out at (+160) for the win and have dominated in Houston of late. This one is probably a stay away.

San Jose v. Portland

San Jose have a nice new stadium but Portland have been on fire for quite some time now. This one feels like the Rapids v. Galaxy game this week. Anytime you get good odds on a good team playing a bad team, you have to consider it. When I see the champs at (+185) playing against a shabby San Jose side, I am intrigued.

***Official Week 2 Picks***

  • $100 on LAG to win at +135
  • $250 on CLB to win at -200
  • $100 on PTFC to win at +185

 

MLS in Vegas: Week 1

mls in veg 2After a brutal 2015, Soccer Therapy is back for more in 2016. If you don’t know the rules, here is a quick refresher: I bet on the weekly money-lines. I can bet on wins and draws, as many or as few as I want in a given week of MLS action, with the only limitation being my $1,000 weekly budget. I get the lines from the Bovada Online Sportsbook each week. Even if I build up some winnings, I cannot bet more than $1,000 in a given week. Note that this is just a game: I like to make these playful wagers and I enjoy keeping track of the numbers, but I am not placing actual bets.

Last year I found myself placing $300 and $400 bets after a winning stretch, only to lose those bets and dig my hole bigger than it ever was in the first place. In 2016, I’ll try to learn from those mistakes and use caution when I find myself wanting to wager $300+. In case you didn’t see last season’s totals in the UGLY section of my The Good, Bad & Ugly from MLS in 2015 post, I’ve got them right here for you:

2015 SEASON
Picking Winners: 22/47 (47%)
Picking Draws: 2/8
Total Earnings: -$1,406 (24/55)

What can I say? It was a trying year, and that is precisely why I do the MLS in Vegas series for fun rather than for money. Anyway, onward we go, through the bloodshed and into 2016. This series is all about weekly wagers, but before I get into the week 1 post, have a look at the MLS Cup odds going into the season:Picture1I’ve seen FC Dallas at 10/1 in addition to the 12/1 you see in this graphic (from VegasInsider.com). Either of those is good value as the Hoops appear to be the consensus favorites in the west. NYRB, Columbus and Toronto are getting some love in the east, but you won’t get great odds with NYRB or Columbus and, just being honest, TFC aren’t winning MLS Cup. New England and Orlando might be worth putting a $20 bill on. It’s always fun to look at these numbers but they rarely mean much in the end. And now, it’s onto my week 1 predictions and wagers.

The first week of action should be approached with great caution. Sure, there may be a few good values out there, but this is a marathon, not a sprint, and there’s nothing wrong with staying on the sidelines in week 1. After all, every offseason is filled with player movement and even the most stable clubs deal with significant turnover on an annual basis.

NYRB v. Toronto – March 6th, 1:30 ET

New York are one of the bigger week 1 favorites at -$140 to win at home. Toronto may be decent value at +$335 to win, but this one looks like a stay away to me.

SJ v. Colorado – March 6th, 3:00 ET

I think there is a pretty good chance this one finishes 1-1 or, even more likely, 0-0. At +$230 for the draw, it’s worth considering a small wager.

FC Dallas v. Philadelphia – March 6th, 3:00 ET

You won’t find a bigger favorite in week 1 than FC Dallas. The Hoops are among the 2016 favorites to win the Shield, USOC and MLS Cup while The Union are coming off an ugly 2015 that has them introducing quite a few new parts to start 2016. At -$170 to win, FC Dallas are solid value in week 1 as this line could have been over $200 if the clubs were meeting any later in the season.

Seattle v. SKC – March 6th, 7:00 ET

Seattle are intriguing at -$110 to beat SKC at CenturyLink tonight. They’ve had a couple of competitive matches against Club America in CCL action over the last week and that could amount to a significant advantage in week 1. SKC can be dangerous, though, and over the years they’ve shown they can win in the Pacific Northwest. Approach with caution.

LA Galaxy v. DC United – March 6th, 10:00 ET

LA are actually the biggest money-line favorites in week 1 at -$210 to beat DC United at the StubHub Center. This is a mystery to me and I actually see more value in DCU at +$500 to win. I’d recommend staying away or maybe a small wager on DC to pull the upset.

***Official Week 1 Picks***

  • $50 SJvCOL to draw at +230
  • $250 on FCD to win at -170
  • $110 on SEA to win at -110

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly from MLS in 2015

It’s a little overdue, what with the 2016 season days away from kicking off. But I just have to get something up here for the 2015 season. Last year I posted the inaugural The Good, Bad and the Ugly from MLS piece in October, recapping the 2014 regular season before a champion had even been crowned. This year will be a little bit different, but I’d like to keep the yearly post alive. With that being said, below is my far-too-late 2015 MLS review.

Picture5THE GOOD

Montreal’s CCL Run
Montreal took MLS fans for an absolute joy ride through the CONCACAF Champions League knockout stages in the spring of 2015. After making it through the group stage, few of us gave the Impact any chance in their 2-leg quarterfinal matchup vs. Liga MX side Pachuca. And few of us will soon forget the incredible closing moments of that tie, when rookie Cameron Porter scored at the death to send his club through to the semis. How could anyone ever forget that face?

030315-Soccer-Montreal-Cameron-Porter-pi-ssm.vresize.1200.675.high.1

Porter’s celebration after his 94′ goal put Montreal through to the CCL semis

The run was equal parts entertaining and unfathomable, and after defeating Costa Rican side Alajuelense in the semifinals, it came up just short in the final against Liga MX giants Club America.

Sebastian Giovinco
We thought he’d do well, maybe even dominate, but Sebastian Giovinco surpassed all expectations in his first MLS campaign. The 2015 MVP tore through the league scoring 22 goals and collecting 16 assists, becoming the first player in league history to top those two categories in the same season. Giovinco toyed with MLS in 2015, and I can’t wait to see what he does in 2016.

sebastian-giovinco-toronto-fc-mls-20150718_1x0uy33oblqak1krb0xk3yfl4a

Sebas knocked it out of the park in his first MLS campaign

The Other Gio
While the Italian Gio set the league on fire and spurred a hapless club on to their first ever postseason appearance, a Mexican Gio made some waves of his own. Giovani dos Santos, the El Tri star with clubs like Barca, Tottenham and Villareal on his resume, made the mid-season transfer to MLS powerhouse LA Galaxy. Gio had some nice moments for LA, but the Galaxy were never up to the task as a whole in 2015. I am recognizing this in 2015’s “GOOD” section because the acquisition of a young, hugely popular and talented Mexican represents a new kind of coup. If MLS can continue signing El Tri stars, it will elevate the level of play, but more importantly, it will work wonders in terms of boosting the league’s profile.

giovani-dos-santos-la-galaxy_3335628

Giovani was an absolute hit with the fans, but couldn’t make the difference for LA in 2016

TV Exposure & Extensive Coverage – The 2015 season is ancient history by now, but it may be looked back upon as a major turning point in terms of when the league was finally able to get some television exposure. Thanks to a new deal, the league featured primetime, nationally televised matches all season long on Univision Deportes/UniMas (34 matches), ESPN (34 matches) and FoxSports1 (34 matches). It may seem like small potatoes compared with the big boys (NFL,NBA, MLB etc.) of American sports, but this is relatively significant exposure for pro soccer in this country. A weekly MLS broadcast on the likes of FoxSports and ESPN is a breath of fresh air for me. MLS also managed to get some nice exposure across the pond, signing 4-year deals with Sky Sports and Eurosport, among other international broadcast agreements. Coverage of American soccer has grown exponentially in recent years. The 2015 US Open Cup final was nationally broadcast on ESPN2 – it was only a few years ago that you couldn’t even find the tournament on ESPN’s website. Lower leagues like the USL and NASL have done a superb job of live streaming matches, mostly in high def and mostly with sufferable commentary. Whether online or on TV, soccer has become much easier to consume.

Expansion – NYCFC and Orlando each were successful in their inaugural campaigns. Both clubs had encouraging moments on the pitch and neither were ever expansion pushovers. Both clubs were buoyed by outstanding fan support and were entertaining to follow throughout 2015 for that reason. A lot of MLS folks have had their doubts about venturing back into Florida after fallouts in Tampa and Miami, but Orlando City’s attendance figures (32,847/game) in year one suggest the Lions are here to stay. As for NYCFC, well, I’ll get back to them in the “UGLY” section.


THE BAD

Major League Soccer has made an obvious effort to sign stars from the US national team. Deuce in Seattle, Bradley and Altidore in Toronto, Mix in New York, Brek Shea in Orlando, and so on. Despite this, the league still refuses to recognize all official FIFA dates throughout each season, scheduling matches that put its clubs in compromised personnel situations. MLS also draws a significant amount of its talent from CONCACAF nations like Honduras and Jamaica. You will never see this blog arguing for an American soccer calendar that aligns with Europe’s. The weather simply does not allow for reasonable or even playable soccer in half of the league’s markets from December to February. Having said that, the league could work harder to accommodate its internationals by honoring all of FIFA’s international dates. More double game weeks would be fine, but I hate watching my club play when our best player is off in Colombia.


THE UGLY

MLS in Vegas – After getting crushed to the tune of minus $747 during my last week of action (Matchday 28), it’s safe to say the 2015 MLS in Vegas campaign has earned its place in the “UGLY” section. Gambling can be cruel, especially in sports. Patience, discipline and structure is the recipe for success, but there’s still that whole thing about “that’s why they play the games.” The final numbers for 2015 are below. Better luck next year, SoccerTherapy.

2015 SEASON
Picking Winners: 22/47 (47%)
Picking Draws: 2/8
Total Earnings: ($1,406)

Kreis & NYCFC The expansion club got itself the ideal manager in Jason Kreis, the architect behind Real Salt Lake’s fantastic success from 2008-2013. Out in Utah, Kreis took RSL took the brink of a CCL title, won MLS Cup (2009) and enjoyed a handful of impressive playoff runs. And even though Jason Kreis didn’t turn RSL into an MLS power over night, it seems that’s what was expected of him in New York.

Kreis, the former head man at RSL and NYCFC, is now an assistant with the USMNT

NYCFC used all three designated player slots on old, overpriced stars from abroad. David Villa performed well and was a positive force for the club in their expansion season. But to add pieces like Pirlo and Lampard, expensive and slow guys in a league full of young, fast, strong and cheap guys, just doesn’t make sense to me. Management not only burned the club’s resources in signing a pair of old slow guys, they also placed Kreis in a position where he had to play these new acquisitions, forcing him to put square pegs in a round hole each time he put out a starting XI. Then, when he isn’t successful enough (not sure what management expected in year one on the pitch), they fire him! Because he couldn’t take their horribly designed roster to the playoffs!! They fired the guy who has proven he can build a winner in this league!!! Because he didn’t build a winner overnight with that sh*tty roster!!!!

Needless to say, NYCFC replaced Kreis with Patrick Vieira, a man with basically no coaching experience. Sure, the former French international was a fine player, but he has minimal knowledge of all the whacky quirks that make MLS different from other leagues around the world.

That’s it for the 2015 recap. I’m sure I overlooked quite a bit of good stuff. Look out for an MLS in Vegas post this weekend. Happy Soccering in 2016!