For the first time this season I am building some momentum and making real progress. Below this post, you’ll find my week 21 review and all the statistics on the season in the MLS in Vegas Housekeeping post. I’ve gone 2-0 in each of the last two weeks and seen positive earnings in four of the last five weeks of action. The dark days of the $1,100 deficit are behind us for now, and if I hadn’t been slaughtered so badly in weeks 11 and 12 (minus $740 on seven picks during the stretch) this series could very well be in the green. As far as week 22 goes, I don’t see much value at all. I’ve written about some intriguing match ups below, but like most weeks in Major League Soccer, there are no “sure bets” in this round, and no outcome should come as a surprise to the well-informed fan.

NYCFC v. Montreal – August 1st, 2:00 ET

This match began prior to this post making it up on the site, so I tweeted this out 45 minutes prior to first kick for good measure:

There you have it. I swear NYCFC were closer to even odds earlier in the week, something like -$103 or -$104 for the win, but I didn’t make the call until 45 minutes prior to First Kick, and apparently, that’s the price I pay. In terms of analysis and gambling justification, I don’t have much and am willing admit this is a shaky bet. But every analyst on MLS’ site picked NYC, who are a good side at home and facing a Montreal team that is awful on the road. Pirlo is in the lineup and he seemed to spark the club on his debut. Like many bad bets I make, I couldn’t resist on this one, but I didn’t want to pass on NYCFC at home after they busted out for five goals a week ago.

SKC v. Houston – August 1st, 8:30 ET

SKC are the only heavy money line favorites in week 22 at -$139 to beat the Dynamo at Sporting Park. Sporting are a dangerous and well coached side and are one of the most consistent teams in MLS despite last week’s loss in Utah. Despite Houston’s positive 3-0 win at home over the Galaxy last week, I think there is a massive gap in class between these two teams. Add in the massive home field advantage at Sporting Park and SKC at -$139 to win look like the surest bet of the weekend.

However, it is important to remember that these clubs have played each other quite a bit over the last few years. Dating back to the 2011 season, they’ve met 11 times in regular season play, 5 times in postseason play, and twice in USOC play (during 2011 qualification play and two weeks ago in the 2015 quarters). That is a lot of history between these two clubs, making the outcome of this one a bit tougher to pick.

Colorado v. LA Galaxy – August 1st, 9:00 ET

This game is complicated. I need to list off a handful of thoughts before I can begin predicting an outcome. I am also considering taking a unique but risky approach with how I wager on this one, more on that later though. For now, a list of thoughts:

PERSONNEL NOTES:
-Drew Moor (Defender, COL), Omar Gonzalez (Defender, LAG), and Juninho (Midfielder, LAG) played 45 minutes in Wednesday’s All Star Game against Spurs. Colorado’s Sam Cronin (Midfielder) put in a 32 minute shift.

-LA are dealing with a host of injury concerns to some key players:

-LA will also be without the services of goalkeeper Jaime Penedo (no longer with the team), the Panamanian International who helped the club win MLS Cup a year ago.

-The Galaxy do receive a boost as Omar Gonzalez, Gyasi Zardes, and Alan Gordon, having returned from national team duty where they helped the US to a 4th place finish in the Gold Cup, are available for selection.

-It’s also possible that LA’s newest high profile acquisition, Mexican International Giovanni Dos Santos, could be available for selection.

CLUB NOTES:
-The Rapids, in terms of PPG, were easily the worst team in MLS prior to taking the last nine points on offer with a three match win streak. The streak hasn’t been terribly convincing: they did take down VAN 2-1 in Colorado, but their wins against RSL and Seattle were suspect, or certainly not convincing.

-LA have yet to win a match on the road this season in MLS. In eleven matches away from the StubHub Center they’ve lost six and drawn five.

 -The two trends listed above suggest Colorado might be good value at +$148 for the win, but Bruce Arena has a way of elevating his side’s play once the stretch run hits. Expect more consistency and quality from the Galaxy over the final three months of the season.

To me, this game boils down to the health and availability of Robbie Keane. If the talisman is healthy and in the XI then LA could be poised to pick up their first road win of the season. As I said above, I am considering taking a unique but potentially costly approach in terms of betting on this match. Colorado are +$148, LA are +$172, and draws always pay better than 2-1. This means if you can narrow the outcome down to two of three possible results, you will be making money. I am very tempted to wager on the draw and a Rapids victory. If I were to to wager $100 on each of those outcomes, I net $48 in the event of a Rapids win and $123 in the event of a draw. As tempting as it is, raising the stakes in a bet against the Galaxy is probably a bad idea.

Chicago v. Dallas – August 2nd, 7:00 ET

Dallas are on a five match win streak and Chicago are one of the worst clubs in MLS. But FC Dallas have been shaky on their travels and poor in this matchup for the last three years. The money lines reflect the fact that Dallas(+$166), while a far better MLS side than Chicago(+$150), are not even close to favorites in this one. A draw may be worth a look here, but I would say take the favorable odds and bet on Big D or leave this one alone. Dallas is in top form right now and will be aided by the return of JeVaugn Watson, Blas Perez and Moises Hernandez from Gold Cup Duty. But unlike other hot streaks FC Dallas have found themselves on over the last three seasons, this one has a much more sustainable feel to it. Dallas’ recent run of results can be attributed to good health, no suspensions and opportunistic soccer. However, the club is playing better thanks to the emergence of the midfield duo Victor Ulloa and Kellyn Acosta – these two players are helping the D, helping the offense, and have provided FCD with the type of midfield that could really chase some silverware in 2015. So if you don’t want to bet on Dallas, that makes plenty of sense, but I don’t think this is the same Hoops team we saw from 2011 – 2014, so I wouldn’t bet against them.

***Official Week 22 Picks***

• $100 on NYCFC to win at -120
• $50 on COLvLA to draw at +223
• $50 on COL to win at +148
• $200 on SKC to win at -139