Yee to the HAW! That’s a lot of green and very little red there in the week 20 review. My batting average is back into the .500 range and that season deficit is as low it’s been in months!

WEEK 20 REVIEW
HIT! $300 on LAG at -$200 = $150
HIT! $300 on SKC at -$190 = $158
Weekly Total = 150 + 158 = $308

Generally, MLS in Vegas posts that begin with good news tend to end with bad picks, putting me back in the same hole I just crawled out of. Even the smallest streaks of success make me irrationally confident and delusional, leading to sloppy and irresponsible picking. Currently, I am on one of my better 3-4 week runs of the season. In gambling, winning makes you stupid and losing makes you smart, so I’m going to do my damnedest to pretend I’ve been losing as I go forward with the MLS in Vegas series.

NEW 2015 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 18/37
Picking Draws: 2/7
Total Earnings: ($435)

There are no “massive” favorites around the league in terms of the money lines this week. Vancouver Whitecaps are considered the heaviest week 21 favorite at -$149 to beat the Quakes in BC Place. Columbus Crew are the second heaviest favorite at -$128 to beat Toronto FC in Ohio and the Impact are third at -$122 to beat the reeling Sounders in Montreal. Other than that, bettors are getting above even odds on every MLS full game money line here in week 21. These great odds bring great uncertainty, so a responsible and conservative approach is recommended in this round.

Houston v. LA Galaxy – July 25th, 9:00 ET

The Dynamo have been average at best in 2015 and the Galaxy appear set to take over the world – easy decision in this match, right? You’ll get good value with LA at +$122 to win in Houston but…

These two teams have met twice this season, both times in LA, and both matches were very even. Houston played LA to a 1-1 draw in March and then lost 1-0 at the death in May (courtesy of Alan Gordon, of course). On top of that, LA have been competing in the ICC with matches against Club America and Barcelona over the last two weeks. Furthermore, while the Galaxy have been red hot at home, they’ve not been the same side on the road. Dating back to June 13th, LA have played 4 home matches and 2 road matches in MLS play. In the four home matches, the Galaxy have taken the full 12 points, outscoring opposition 19-3 (seriously, LA have scored 19 goals in their last 4 MLS home matches). However, the two road matches during that stretch were a 1-1 draw at Columbus and a 3-1 defeat in NorCal to the SanJose Quakes.

Sure, LA are a different club now with a fully healthy Robbie Keane and Stevie G in the fold, but I think I’ll take a week off from betting on the Galaxy because this match does not sit well with me.

Dallas v. Portland – July 25th, 9:00 ET

Dallas have won four in a row and are playing some of their best soccer of the season. Mauro Diaz is fully fit and in good spirits after getting a new contract, and the D-mid duo of Kellyn Acosta and Victor Ulloa has freed Mauro up to spearhead the FCD attack and create nightmares for every defense he faces. Fabian Castillo is Fabian Castillo and FC Dallas just play so damn well at home (7-1-2 now on the season). Portland’s Will Johnson is on a red card meaning FC Dallas will catch a personnel break for the third straight match (Kaka was suspended when FCD traveled to Orlando two weeks ago and DC’s new trade acquisition, Alvaro Saborio, was not yet available for last Saturday’s match). Dallas are +$101 (basically EVEN) to win this one at home. Will they make it five in a row? They could, but I am not convinced the Hoops are a good value here.

DC United v. Philadelphia – July 26th, 5:00 ET

DC are +$109 in this one and while they’ve been on a scoring and points drought, I kind of like them here. DC are back at home, they are a quality side, and they’re in need of a win versus a beatable team. I am willing to wager that they put it all on the line this week, will the ball into the back of the net, and grind out the three points. It’s not much analysis there, I know, but I am willing to wager on them this week, and if they fail me, I’ll be much more calculated with the Eastern Conference leaders going forward.

Vancouver v. San Jose – July 26th, 7:00 ET

Both of these clubs have been on a bad run of form – both clubs have also dealt with significant absences during the Gold Cup. San Jose are mostly unpredictable while Vancouver remain a mystery in that they can’t seem to win at home but they are picking up some serious points on the road in 2015. This one has a bit of a dangerous feel to it with Vancouver at -$149 for the win, but I think the ‘Caps are a class above the Quakes and are solid value at home in this one.

***Official Week 21 Picks***

• $100 on DC at +109
• $100 on VAN at -149