I’m very disappointed in myself after week 19. I made three bets: one good bet that hit and two bad bets that did not. While that may sound like an obvious and therefore pointless thing to say, it is not. Sometimes good bets don’t hit (see ORLvNE in week 10) and other times (rarely though) questionable bets do hit. My breakdown of the lines from last week is proof that I knew FCD was the only good value in round 19, but I got cocky. And I love betting on nationally televised games, so I’m often a sucker for #ViernesDeFutbol (SJvHOU fail last week) and #SoccerSunday (NYCvTOR fail last week). I also think a recent run of success had me deviating from my new plan of minimizing wagers per week and emphasizing quality value over quantity.

WEEK 19 REVIEW
LOSS $100 on SJ = ($100)
HIT! $100 on DAL at +$185 = $185
LOSS $200 on NYC = ($200)
Weekly Total = 185 -100 – 200 =  ($115)

NEW 2015 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 16/35
Picking Draws: 2/7
Total Earnings: ($743)

LA Galaxy v. San Jose – July 17th, 11:00 ET

LA are -$200 and San Jose are a whopping +$500. Even though LA lost in an Open Cup match on Tuesday to RSL in which many key contributors went the full 90, the Galaxy still seem like a good bet – brilliant analysis there, I know. MLSsoccer.com’s weekly Pick’em series features six writers/contributors and all six picked LA to win this match. I also see that huge disparity in the two money lines and begin to think that a lot of folks who are more informed than myself (soccer writers, former players, and bookmakers) view LA as a massive favorite tonight – that’s good enough for me!

SKC v. Montreal – July 18th, 8:30 ET

I’m starting to think SKC are a legitimate contender to win MLS Cup. They play physical but attractive soccer and routinely display great team chemistry. Montreal are still a shoddy side on the road and, in my view, a notch below SKC in terms of quality and coaching. It’s no wonder then that SKC are at -$190 for the win. It’s not a full proof bet because sometimes SKC’s defense has horrific lapses (both at home and on the road), which could cost them dearly against a lethal counter attacking Impact team.

FC Dallas v. DC United – July 18th, 9:00 ET

I am not sure why FCD are at -$140 to win in this one. DC United have been tough on the road all year and Dallas has been poor in this matchup over the last few seasons. Dallas is hot, thriving off of a new midfield duo in Victor Ulloa and Kellyn Acosta as well as the pure class of Fabian Castillo and Mauro Diaz, and will be back at home where they play so well (6-1-2 in Frisco this season). This explains the Hoops’ status as favorites, but the matchup makes me uncomfortable as a fan, so as a responsible gambler, I’ll be staying away.

***Official Week 20 Picks***

• $300 on LA at -200
• $300 on SKC at -190