I really did struggle with that Montreal pick and I almost cancelled it prior to first kick, but I don’t like cancelling wagers. After all, all bets in Vegas are non-refundable. Either way, week 18 was my second fruitful outing in a row, and I am finally putting a dent in that big season long deficit. I’ve made a few good picks and a lot of bad ones on the road to this point, but my results could improve as I continue to look for quality over quantity when picking each week’s games. Below is a review of my week 18 picks (where I went 2 for 3) and a look at the new 2015 season totals.
WEEK 18 REVIEW
LOSS $150 on MTL at EVEN = ($150)
HIT! $300 on LAG at -$155 = (100/155) * 300 = $193
HIT! $250 on POR at -$170 = (100/170) * 250 = $147
Weekly Total =193 + 147 – 150 = $190
NEW 2015 SEASON TOTALS
Picking Winners: 15/32
Picking Draws: 2/7
Total Earnings: ($628)
One of the reasons I stewed on that Montreal pick was a vague recollection that I’d been struggling when picking for/against the Impact in 2015. Week 11 comes to mind, when I had a $100 on RSL and the Impact came out at home with 3 goals in the first 30 minutes en route to a 4-1 victory. But as it turned out, the only other match I picked this season involving Montreal was a hit (Portland, +$180 at Montreal, wk.10). That is, of course, before this week’s fail against NYCFC. I am now batting .333 when picking for/against MTL in 2015, and that got me to thinking, what’s my average for each of the 20 MLS clubs so far this season?
I compiled the numbers and now I see what teams I am good at picking and what teams I really suck at picking. This chart shows the results of all 78 matches I’ve picked this season: whether I picked a team to win/lose/draw, if I hit the bet, I’ve tallied it in the hit column and if I lost the bet, I’ve tallied it in the loss column. Look over the numbers if you like, I’ve bullet pointed a few of my observations below:
- I’m struggling to pick matches involving FC Dallas (40%), the club I know the most about.
- Vancouver are tied for the league lead in wins (10) and I have yet to pick them once.
- I am 3 for 5 picking TFC (hits in weeks 4, 5 and 18 – losses in weeks 9 and 10). All three hits have come when picking the Reds to lose, both losses have come when picking them to win or draw.
And now it’s on to the week 19 selections, where I am finding plenty of reasons to keep my money safe and not make any bets at all this weekend. But that’ll never happen.
San Jose v. Houston – July 10th, 11:00 ET
San Jose host the Dynamo in a late night nationally televised #ViernesDeFutbol match. The two teams met earlier this year in Houston in a match that finished 1-0 to the visitors. Quakes manager Dom Kinnear should know his former side well (he was manager of the current Dynamo team for a decade+, winning MLS Cups in ’06 and ’07 and moving back to San Jose this previous off-season). San Jose could be worth a look at -$110 in this one, but I think it’s a classic Stay Away match with all of the international absences (listed below) due to the Gold Cup.
New York Red Bulls v. New England – July 11th, 7:00 ET
I’ve struggled mightily when picking both of these teams this season. On top of that, this is a rivalry game and both clubs have been in an awful run of form. I wouldn’t touch this.
Philadelphia v. Portland – July 11th, 7:00 ET
Philly is +$150 at home in this one, Portland +$170 on the road, and you will get +$225 odds if you want to bet on the draw here. Portland seems like a steal, but be careful, despite the fact that they’ve won five of their last six, the Timbers have demonstrated that they are still unreliable on the road (four of those five wins came at home and the lone road win came against lowly Colorado). Philly have also picked themselves up by their bootstraps (sort of) and are playing much better soccer than they were in the first quarter of the season.
Orlando City v. FC Dallas – July 11th, 7:30 ET
This match intrigues me. Cyle Larin is out of the lineup and helping the Canadian National Team in their efforts at the Gold Cup. FC Dallas catches an even bigger break as Kaka will be out of the lineup thanks to his red card in Utah last week. Kaka and Larin have combined for 15 of Orlando’s 23 goals this season, so Orlando will need to find production from a less familiar source. Dallas will be shorthanded for sure, missing fullbacks, midfielders and their talisman all thanks to the Gold Cup, but I don’t see those absences impacting the Hoops too negatively. Dallas will still have Mauro Diaz and Fabian Castillo, the two headed monster behind the club’s two match winning streak. They will also have the midfield pairing of Victor Ulloa and Kellyn Acosta, which continues to improve and make FCD more dangerous. I have not been great picking either of these clubs in 2015, but I see Dallas as solid value at +$185.
Basically, everything other than Dallas I look at as a huge HELL NO this week. The ones I’ve written about above offer little promise, and below I’ve listed off the rest of the weekend’s games, which, if you have a look at the Bovada lines, are not tempting at all.
MTL (+130) v. CLB (+180) – I suck at picking both of these teams
CHI (-105) v. SEA (+275) – Seattle a shell of themselves
COL (-120) v. RSL (+260) – wait… WHAT!?
NYC (-110) v. TOR (+260) – actually, I’m kind of intrigued by NYC here
VAN (+105) v. SKC (+250) – hmmmm, two good teams = stay away for me
***Official Week 19 Picks***
I really shouldn’t do this. The smart play is to make no wagers at all, but this is monopoly money anyway and I want to make some bets!
- $100 on SJ at -110
- $100 on DAL at +185
- $200 on NYC to win at -110
Below is a breakdown of how I’ve picked each club so far this season. Whether I picked a team to win, lose, or draw, if I was right, I’ve marked it as a Hit on this chart, and if I was wrong when picking a certain club, I’ve marked it as a Miss. Through 13 weeks of the series, I’ve wagered on 46 matches, making for a total of 92 hits and misses so far. Notice that, in the parity ridden Eastern Conference, I am really struggling to accurately pick outcomes with so much inconsistent play. 
As the first chart shows, I’ve made money in five of the last six weeks I played, so hopefully we can keep the momentum going forward! Look for the MLS in Vegas: Week 22 post on Friday afternoon, I don’t see too many values out there, but SKC at home versus the Houston Dynamo has me feeling opportunistic.
These two teams have met twice this season, both times in LA, and both matches were very even. Houston played LA to a 1-1 draw in March and then lost 1-0 at the death in May (courtesy of Alan Gordon, of course). On top of that, LA have been competing in the ICC with matches against Club America and Barcelona over the last two weeks. Furthermore, while the Galaxy have been red hot at home, they’ve not been the same side on the road. Dating back to June 13th, LA have played 4 home matches and 2 road matches in MLS play. In the four home matches, the Galaxy have taken the full 12 points, outscoring opposition 19-3 (seriously, LA have scored 19 goals in their last 4 MLS home matches). However, the two road matches during that stretch were a 1-1 draw at Columbus and a 3-1 defeat in NorCal to the SanJose Quakes.
Soccer Therapy 