Soccer Therapy 9/17/2014 – UEFA Champions League thoughts

UCL logoAlright Boys, time for a little therapy sesh!

It’s been awhile: FC Dallas’ PK loss in the Open Cup semifinal and the start of a new NFL season have taken the wind out of my “blog-sails.” But, with the greatest annual sporting competition on the planet back in action, I need to get some soccer thoughts off my chest, so to speak. Yes, I do believe the UEFA Champions League (UCL) is the single best sports competition played on an annual basis. Popular opinion seems to be that NCAA Basketball’s March Madness is the best tournament of the year. Sure, March Madness is hard to beat in terms of the big upsets and buzzer-beaters, but my criteria for “best sporting competition” goes beyond raw entertainment value. The games have to mean something, and frankly, I don’t care about the little academic institutions with 3,000 students and their basketball success. When a nation (or large region) rallies behind a massive soccer club engaging in world-class international competition, I think that “means something.” Some have said the NBA Playoffs, with its 40 games in 40 nights, is the best. Obviously, you can’t go wrong arguing that the NFL regular season and/or its 12-team playoff are the best competitions of the year. The NFL is still my favorite sport to consume personally, but from an objective standpoint, the UCL is the single greatest competition fans are treated to every year.

Every sports fan has experienced one of those moments when they said to themselves, “WOW, this sh*t is cool.” For me, some of those moments include Larry Allen making 300lb. men look like little girls, Hakeem’s Dream-Shake and fade-away, and little 150lb. Major Applewhite breaking nearly every Longhorn passing record in the book (at the time). In 2012, I experienced a Champions League “wow” moment that pops back into my head every time I get excited about the competition.

trioYesterday represented the start of UCL group-play, but today’s action has me thinking about an epic clash in the knockout stages of the 2011-2012 season. After winning their group, Arsenal were drawn against AC Milan, who finished their group in second, behind then dominant FC Barcelona (I just wanted to say Barca aren’t dominant anymore). With two super clubs and attacking talent like RVP and Zlatan, the stage was set for a fantastic round of 16 matchup. But in classic fashion, as only Arsenal can, they travelled to Milan, crashed, and then burned, eventually losing the first leg 4-0. The second leg was a brilliant match to watch. Arsenal came out on fire at the Emirates, playing some of the most entertaining soccer I’ve seen to this day, thrashing Milan for three first half goals. In the second half they huffed and puffed, but never quite blew the house down. Arsenal had multiple chances, but one that really stands out is an absolute sitter that RVP tried to get cute with rather than smashing it home. He might still be losing sleep over this one (below)

Arsenal FC v AC Milan - UEFA Champions League Round of 16Alas, the valiant effort came up short and Arsenal lost on aggregate 4-3. It was an incredible second leg that sticks out as one of my favorite UCL memories. Fortunately, the UCL is back for 2014-2015 and ready to create all kinds of memories! After 16 matches in 36 hours, we can look forward to another 80 group-play matches to be fought out between now and Christmas. Below is a quick look at how I see the group stage playing out, because you know, I have watched all 32 of these teams.

(Group winners in bold):

GROUP A: Juventus, Athletico Madrid
This is how I would have picked the group before yesterday, when Olimpiakos took all 3 points from Athleti in Greece.

GROUP B: Real Madrid, Liverpool
After Liverpool struggled with the Bulgarians at Anfield and the Blancos destroyed FC Basel yesterday, this group seems pretty easy to pick.

GROUP C: Benfica, Zenit St. Petersburg
With the other two teams in this group being Monaco and Bayer Leverkusen, this has to be the “Group of Life” and I therefore have no idea how to pick it.

GROUP D: Dortmund, Arsenal
This seems like an easy group to pick. But, it is always possible the Gunners find their way into Europa League action and let the likes of Anderlecht or Galatasaray through.

GROUP E: Roma, Bayern Munich
Why not Roma? While this is the “Group of Death”, Munich seem to have regressed under Pep and ManC haven’t convinced anyone they can win in Europe. Meanwhile, it seems like Roma has lots of quality and depth, giving them the ability to play strong squads against the big boys in this group. I am probably an idiot.

GROUP F: PSG, FC Barcelona
AJAX is also in this group and they managed to draw PSG in Amsterdam on match-day 1. But I think PSG will outplay FCB when the sides meet, 9/30 in Paris and 12/10 in Barcelona.

GROUP G: Chelsea, Schalke 04
Not much to say about this group. Chelsea are tourney favs and Schalke always do well in Europe.

GROUP H: Porto, Shakhtar Donetsk
-his group is boring.

2 Cool things about European Competition:
1) I did not pick 3rd place finishers, but I think it is an awesome and underrated part of European competition that 3rd place finishers in the UCL group stage are placed in the Europa League knockout rounds.

2) I also think it is cool that winners of the Europa League will qualify for the following season’s UCL starting in 2015-2016.

The European bookies I’ve looked at vary a little, but here is a list of odds to win for the big favs:

  • Real Madrid: 4-to-1
  • Bayern Munich: 4-to-1
  • FC Barcelona: 6-to-1
  • Chelsea: 7-to-1
  • Man City: 15-to-1
  • PSG: 15-to-1
  • Dortmund: 20-1
  • Athletico Madrid, Liverpool, Juve, Arsenal: 25-to-1 odds

I don’t see a club outside of the top four winning it. I would like to pick Real Madrid, but no team has ever won the UCL in back to back years. Before, when teams competed for the European Cup, multiple clubs achieved the feat, including Bayern Munich and Liverpool in the 70s and AC Milan in 1989 and 1990. So basically, it has happened before, but not in the last 25 years. I’ll just go ahead and pick Chelsea to bring home the silverware next June. I think those odds on Dortmund are a little off, at 20-1 to win it all on Bet365, they win my “Best Value Bet” award. I don’t have a rooting interest, but I’ll be hoping this season’s tourney doesn’t end in an all-German or all-Spanish final like we’ve seen the last two years. Either way, it will be played in Berlin, on June 6th, 2015.

UCL final location00If I think of any Americans playing for UCL clubs I may revisit this column. But for now, the only one that comes to mind is Sacha Kljestan, who plays for Belgian side Anderlecht and started in their impressive road draw yesterday in Istanbul. That place isn’t easy for any team, let alone an annual UCL punching bag. In fact, the home stadium of Galatasaray has been in a few documentaries and is a downright terrifying place. It’s safe to say they have a lot of supporters groups.

crazy turksThat is it for my mostly uninformed UCL preview. This season’s edition of the UEFA Champions League promises to provide fans with more of those “wow” moments and I’ll be trying to catch as many as I can. I haven’t been watching soccer long enough to have any fun traditions, but I am thinking a liquid lunch amongst soccer friends for UCL match-day one going forward would be a nice one to start.

Cheers, and good luck to your club.

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